TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Dalimil Machander vs Pavel Chovanec 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811118116113––
Pavel Chovanec
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:58 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeDalimil Machander to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDalimil Machander above · Pavel Chovanec below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 69 set 4, 11-3 · our read held Dalimil Machander at 58.9%
69 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:5858.9%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.8pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Machander
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Machander 1522 vs Chovanec 1481
Machander
Correct
both rated, 41 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Machander 40% vs Chovanec 0%
Machander
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Machander 40% vs Chovanec 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Machander +1 · Chovanec -5
Chovanec
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Machander) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chovanec form (0%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMachander 1.571 / Chovanec 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Machander)-4.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13222349
Machander1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 49 of 91
Up 2–0, closes it91% 20 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it73% 38 of 52
Chovanec2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog35% won 8 of 23
Down 0–1, comes back17% 2 of 12
Down 0–2, comes back13% 1 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricMachanderChovanecBasisWin rate · lifetime181 / 396 vs 20 / 5045.7%40%181 / 396 vs 20 / 50Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match40.136.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MachanderMachander 1.57/Chovanec 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Machander · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Machander won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
D. Machander10
WOct 1 · 07:30P. Smetka2.6311118682D. Machander1.44841111113LOct 1 · 06:00D. Machander1.8361171162P. Osvald1.83119119113LSep 29 · 09:28D. Machander1.67811581M. Volny2.1011811113WSep 29 · 08:00D. Machander1.7311119113M. Volny2.00461131LSep 29 · 07:30M. Blejchar2.63511711113D. Machander1.4411811982WSep 29 · 06:00D. Machander1.7311119113M. Koral2.00971141LSep 26 · 20:59D. Machander2.10471181R. Vavrecka1.6711118113LSep 26 · 20:00D. Machander2.5079100D. Langer1.501111123WSep 26 · 19:30A. Walek1.911011851D. Machander1.8012711113LSep 26 · 18:00D. Machander2.2519119782R. Vavrecka1.571791111113
P. Chovanec10
LOct 1 · 07:00P. Osvald2.201111811113P. Chovanec1.6129111362LOct 1 · 06:30P. Chovanec1.671171181P. Smetka2.1013117113LSep 13 · 09:08P. Chovanec2.105410M. Blejchar1.661111113LSep 13 · 08:00P. Chovanec1.6111115672O. Hradil2.20991111113LSep 13 · 07:30A. Rinka1.801111113P. Chovanec1.918360WSep 13 · 06:00P. Chovanec1.6171211113M. Blejchar2.201110741WSep 7 · 13:30O. Hradil1.8311117592P. Chovanec1.83951111113LSep 7 · 12:00O. Hradil2.0014112123P. Chovanec1.7312511101WSep 7 · 11:00P. Osvald2.201188101P. Chovanec1.6191111123WSep 7 · 10:30P. Chovanec1.571111113M. Blejchar2.259330
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