TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Chalupa vs Michal Wollny 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114118511117––
Michal Wollny
Away
1.25
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:22 and never touched: 75.0% is still 75.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Wollny to win
75.0%
75.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Chalupa above · Michal Wollny below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 68 set 4, 11-7 · our read held Michal Wollny at 75.0%
68 points played in total.
H2H Michal Chalupa 0–2 Michal Wollny Michal Chalupa has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:2275.0%Our read80.0%to break even at 1.25
short by 5.0pp80.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.25 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Wollny
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Chalupa 1726 vs Wollny 1683
Chalupa
Correct
both rated, 43 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chalupa 60% vs Wollny 0%
Chalupa
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chalupa 50% vs Wollny 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chalupa +2 · Wollny -5
Wollny
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% · Strong (leans Wollny) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wollny form (0%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChalupa 3.75 / Wollny 1.25
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Wollny)-5.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13216867
Chalupa3.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 72 of 156
Down 0–1, comes back24% 21 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 45
Wollny1.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite53% won 25 of 47
Up 2–0, closes it91% 10 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it73% 19 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeChalupa0wins
AwayWollny2wins
Wollny leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away2
These 2 meetings
MetricChalupaWollnyC − WBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match15.033.0−18.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChalupaWollnyBasisWin rate · lifetime398 / 749 vs 111 / 21253.1%52.4%398 / 749 vs 111 / 212Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
WollnyChalupa 3.75/Wollny 1.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
75%
Wollny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chalupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LJan 3 · 18:30M. Chalupa114610M. Wollny331111113
LJan 3 · 16:30M. Chalupa196580M. Wollny331111113
M. Chalupa10
LSep 30 · 20:30D. Szotek2.10111311113M. Chalupa1.67515951WSep 30 · 18:30R. Hudeczek1.911110891M. Chalupa1.8091211113WSep 28 · 20:59M. Chalupa1.6711119123T. Kypr2.107911101LSep 28 · 20:00M. Chalupa1.44911531D. Szotek2.6311911113WSep 28 · 19:30T. Kypr2.0010118121M. Chalupa1.7312911143LSep 28 · 18:00M. Chalupa1.5311124652M. Holub2.388101111113WSep 26 · 21:00M. Chalupa1.4011115113Z. Pagac2.75971181LSep 26 · 20:00M. Chalupa1.67291181D. Szotek2.1011119113WSep 26 · 19:30Z. Pagac2.6310940M. Chalupa1.441211113LSep 26 · 18:00M. Chalupa1.57121451042T. Kypr2.2510121112113
M. Wollny10
LSep 30 · 20:58R. Hudeczek2.38411511123M. Wollny1.53117118102LSep 30 · 20:00M. Wollny1.529580R. Hudeczek2.351111113LSep 30 · 18:00M. Wollny1.536511101D. Szotek2.3811119123LSep 3 · 21:00V. Burdik2.00111411113M. Wollny1.73516781LSep 3 · 20:00M. Wollny2.20661181M. Kratochvil1.6111118113LSep 3 · 19:30R. Urbaniec2.6311911113M. Wollny1.44911781LSep 3 · 18:00M. Wollny1.7361111852V. Burdik2.00119711113WSep 1 · 21:28M. Wollny1.731011911113V. Burdik2.0012711882WSep 1 · 20:00M. Wollny1.6111118113R. Urbaniec2.20941171WSep 1 · 19:30L. Kern2.50115981M. Wollny1.5091111113
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