TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Chalupa vs David Szotek 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 28Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911119511311––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:58 and never touched — 67.7% is still 67.7%
Graded at full timeMichal Chalupa to win
67.7%
67.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Chalupa above · David Szotek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 70 set 4, 3-11 · our read held Michal Chalupa at 67.7%
70 points played in total.
H2H Michal Chalupa 20–19 David Szotek David Szotek has won 19 of their 39 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:58What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Chalupa
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-19 in 39
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chalupa 1719 vs Szotek 1612
Chalupa
Wrong
both rated, 107 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chalupa 60% vs Szotek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chalupa 50% vs Szotek 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chalupa +1 · Szotek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% · Clear lean (leans Chalupa) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szotek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChalupa 1.44 / Szotek 2.63
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Chalupa)+3.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13206802
Chalupa1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 122 of 209
Up 2–0, closes it88% 52 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it77% 86 of 112
Szotek2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 51 of 122
Down 0–1, comes back28% 18 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChalupa6wins
AwaySzotek4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderChalupa leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChalupa100%4 of 4
AwaySzotek66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chalupa4Szotek6n = 10Szotek took 6 of 10
S2Chalupa5Szotek5n = 10split evenly
S3Chalupa8Szotek2n = 10Chalupa took 8 of 10
S4Chalupa3Szotek3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricChalupaSzotekC − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.134.3+3.8per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChalupaSzotekBasisWin rate · lifetime396 / 746 vs 147 / 34053.1%43.2%396 / 746 vs 147 / 340Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.336.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupaChalupa 1.44/Szotek 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.7%
Chalupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Szotek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 26 · 20:00M. Chalupa30291181D. Szotek4211119113
LSep 24 · 19:30M. Chalupa5091411792D. Szotek471112211113
WSep 22 · 14:00M. Chalupa331111113D. Szotek167360
WSep 21 · 20:00M. Chalupa4711520113D. Szotek426111871
LSep 13 · 17:00M. Chalupa2567120D. Szotek361111143
LSep 13 · 15:30M. Chalupa3091380D. Szotek371115113
WSep 10 · 20:58M. Chalupa484111111113D. Szotek3611621342
WSep 10 · 19:00M. Chalupa43101111113D. Szotek30127921
WSep 9 · 18:00M. Chalupa4211712123D. Szotek3541110101
WSep 7 · 21:30M. Chalupa331111113D. Szotek229760
M. Chalupa10
WSep 28 · 19:30T. Kypr2.0010118121M. Chalupa1.7312911143LSep 28 · 18:00M. Chalupa1.5311124652M. Holub2.388101111113WSep 26 · 21:00M. Chalupa1.4011115113Z. Pagac2.75971181LSep 26 · 20:00M. Chalupa1.67291181D. Szotek2.1011119113WSep 26 · 19:30Z. Pagac2.6310940M. Chalupa1.441211113LSep 26 · 18:00M. Chalupa1.57121451042T. Kypr2.2510121112113LSep 24 · 21:30R. Hudeczek1.85111111113M. Chalupa1.85241381WSep 24 · 20:00M. Chalupa1.8311141013113R. Hudeczek1.83912121582LSep 24 · 19:30D. Szotek2.251112211113M. Chalupa1.5791411792WSep 24 · 18:00M. Chalupa1.501111113Z. Pagac2.504870
D. Szotek10
WSep 28 · 19:00M. Holub2.001316681D. Szotek1.73151411113WSep 28 · 18:30D. Szotek2.251113115123T. Kypr1.57715811102LSep 27 · 16:59D. Szotek1.91881141T. Kypr1.8011119113WSep 27 · 16:00D. Szotek2.0071111113T. Kypr1.73119781LSep 27 · 15:30D. Unzeitig2.501191011113D. Szotek1.5071112752LSep 27 · 14:00D. Szotek1.73411761Z. Pagac2.0011911113LSep 26 · 21:30T. Kypr1.781211113D. Szotek1.9210720WSep 26 · 20:00M. Chalupa1.67291181D. Szotek2.1011119113LSep 26 · 19:00T. Kypr1.91113911113D. Szotek1.8081111982WSep 24 · 19:30D. Szotek2.251112211113M. Chalupa1.5791411792
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