TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Chalupa vs Zbynek Pagac 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119117511118––
Form at publish
0–10Last 10Lost last 10
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:58 and never touched — 69.1% is still 69.1%
Graded at full timeMichal Chalupa to win
69.1%
69.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Chalupa above · Zbynek Pagac below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 73 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Michal Chalupa at 69.1%
73 points played in total.
H2H Michal Chalupa 80–66 Zbynek Pagac Zbynek Pagac has won 66 of their 146 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Chalupa beat Pagac 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:58What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Chalupa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
80-66 in 146
Chalupa
Correct
gap of 14 in 146, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chalupa 1712 vs Pagac 1548
Chalupa
Correct
both rated, 163 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chalupa 40% vs Pagac 0%
Chalupa
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chalupa 50% vs Pagac 0%
Chalupa
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chalupa -1 · Pagac -10
Pagac
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Chalupa)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pagac form (0%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChalupa 1.40 / Pagac 2.75
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Chalupa)+2.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13203307
Chalupa1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 120 of 205
Up 2–0, closes it89% 50 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it77% 84 of 109
Pagac2.75
0%won 0 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 10
oldest → newest0%takes the first set · 0 of 10
As underdog38% won 95 of 250
Down 0–1, comes back19% 27 of 145
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 101
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChalupa8wins
AwayPagac2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderChalupa leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChalupa87.5%7 of 8
AwayPagacn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chalupa8Pagac2n = 10Chalupa took 8 of 10
S2Chalupa7Pagac3n = 10Chalupa took 7 of 10
S3Chalupa8Pagac2n = 10Chalupa took 8 of 10
S4Chalupa3Pagac3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricChalupaPagacC − PBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match38.131.7+6.4per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChalupaPagacBasisWin rate · lifetime395 / 744 vs 328 / 69453.1%47.3%395 / 744 vs 328 / 694Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.336.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupaChalupa 1.40/Pagac 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.1%
Chalupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chalupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 26 · 19:30M. Chalupa341211113Z. Pagac2310940
WSep 24 · 18:00M. Chalupa331111113Z. Pagac194870
WSep 21 · 19:30M. Chalupa4071111113Z. Pagac25114641
WSep 19 · 13:30M. Chalupa331111113Z. Pagac239950
WSep 19 · 10:30M. Chalupa4211812113Z. Pagac389111081
WSep 17 · 19:00M. Chalupa331111113Z. Pagac225890
LSep 13 · 14:00M. Chalupa45121112462Z. Pagac521061411113
WSep 4 · 18:30M. Chalupa4111811113Z. Pagac32911481
LSep 4 · 15:00M. Chalupa344111091Z. Pagac4111712113
WSep 3 · 21:30M. Chalupa46119114113Z. Pagac4261181162
M. Chalupa10
LSep 26 · 20:00M. Chalupa1.67291181D. Szotek2.1011119113WSep 26 · 19:30Z. Pagac2.6310940M. Chalupa1.441211113LSep 26 · 18:00M. Chalupa1.57121451042T. Kypr2.2510121112113LSep 24 · 21:30R. Hudeczek1.85111111113M. Chalupa1.85241381WSep 24 · 20:00M. Chalupa1.8311141013113R. Hudeczek1.83912121582LSep 24 · 19:30D. Szotek2.251112211113M. Chalupa1.5791411792WSep 24 · 18:00M. Chalupa1.501111113Z. Pagac2.504870LSep 22 · 17:30M. Chalupa2.20101110101F. Nadymacek1.6012812123WSep 22 · 16:00M. Chalupa2.38111112113F. Nadymacek1.535131041WSep 22 · 15:30L. Kern2.0041151142M. Chalupa1.73117113113
Z. Pagac10
LSep 26 · 20:30T. Kypr1.831111113Z. Pagac1.833980LSep 26 · 19:30Z. Pagac2.6310940M. Chalupa1.441211113LSep 26 · 18:30D. Szotek1.7311411113Z. Pagac2.00611781LSep 24 · 20:58D. Szotek1.7311127113Z. Pagac2.006101171LSep 24 · 20:30Z. Pagac1.679980D. Szotek2.101111113LSep 24 · 19:00Z. Pagac2.204760R. Hudeczek1.611111113LSep 24 · 18:00M. Chalupa1.501111113Z. Pagac2.504870LSep 23 · 20:58Z. Pagac1.61911831M. Holub2.2011711113LSep 23 · 20:00R. Hudeczek1.671111113Z. Pagac2.107760LSep 23 · 19:00L. Kern1.401111113Z. Pagac2.758980
Upcoming Matches
M. Chalupa
Nothing scheduled
Z. Pagac
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