TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Chalupa vs Frantisek Nadymacek 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 22Finished
Michal Chalupa
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
101211810121012––
Frantisek Nadymacek
Away
1.60
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:21 and never touched — 55.5% is still 55.5%
Graded at full timeFrantisek Nadymacek to win
55.5%
55.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Chalupa above · Frantisek Nadymacek below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 85 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Frantisek Nadymacek at 55.5%
85 points played in total.
H2H Michal Chalupa 4–5 Frantisek Nadymacek Michal Chalupa has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Chalupa beat Nadymacek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 17:21What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (58%)
Nadymacek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chalupa 1761 vs Nadymacek 1720
Chalupa
Wrong
both rated, 41 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chalupa 80% vs Nadymacek 60%
Chalupa
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chalupa 80% vs Nadymacek 40%
Chalupa
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chalupa +3 · Nadymacek -1
Chalupa
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Nadymacek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chalupa form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChalupa 2.20 / Nadymacek 1.60
Signal prob.45% / 56%
Edge (Nadymacek)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13179742
Chalupa2.20
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog46% won 73 of 159
Down 0–1, comes back24% 21 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 46
Nadymacek1.60
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 24 of 38
Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it90% 18 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeChalupa4wins
AwayNadymacek5wins
4 of 9 to a deciderNadymacek leads 5–4, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChalupa75%3 of 4
AwayNadymacek80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chalupa4Nadymacek5n = 9Nadymacek took 5 of 9
S2Chalupa2Nadymacek7n = 9Nadymacek took 7 of 9
S3Chalupa3Nadymacek6n = 9Nadymacek took 6 of 9
S4Chalupa5Nadymacek1n = 6Chalupa took 5 of 6
S5Chalupa2Nadymacek2n = 4split evenly
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away333%
These 9 meetings
MetricChalupaNadymacekC − NBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match39.039.9−0.9per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChalupaNadymacekBasisWin rate · lifetime392 / 736 vs 36 / 5953.3%61%392 / 736 vs 36 / 59Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NadymacekChalupa 2.20/Nadymacek 1.60
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.5%
Nadymacek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Nadymacek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 22 · 16:00M. Chalupa45111112113F. Nadymacek325131041
WSep 19 · 12:00M. Chalupa52119714113F. Nadymacek49811111272
LAug 31 · 14:30M. Chalupa208660F. Nadymacek331111113
LAug 31 · 10:00M. Chalupa2156100F. Nadymacek341111123
WAug 16 · 16:59M. Chalupa52119911123F. Nadymacek47811117102
WAug 16 · 14:00M. Chalupa3851111113F. Nadymacek35119871
LAug 10 · 15:00M. Chalupa46118111152F. Nadymacek42311134113
LAug 5 · 16:00M. Chalupa4971113992F. Nadymacek511171111113
LJul 23 · 14:00M. Chalupa2812970F. Nadymacek361411113
M. Chalupa10
WSep 22 · 16:00M. Chalupa2.38111112113F. Nadymacek1.535131041WSep 22 · 15:30L. Kern2.0041151142M. Chalupa1.73117113113WSep 22 · 14:00M. Chalupa1.611111113D. Szotek2.207360LSep 21 · 21:29R. Hudeczek1.831111113M. Chalupa1.838670WSep 21 · 20:00M. Chalupa1.7311520113D. Szotek2.006111871WSep 21 · 19:30Z. Pagac2.50114641M. Chalupa1.5071111113LSep 21 · 18:00M. Chalupa1.7311691162R. Hudeczek2.00511119113WSep 19 · 13:30M. Chalupa1.441111113Z. Pagac2.639950WSep 19 · 12:00F. Nadymacek1.40811111272M. Chalupa2.75119714113WSep 19 · 11:00R. Hudeczek1.737760M. Chalupa2.001111113
F. Nadymacek10
LSep 22 · 16:00M. Chalupa2.38111112113F. Nadymacek1.535131041WSep 22 · 15:00D. Szotek2.759950F. Nadymacek1.401111113WSep 22 · 14:30F. Nadymacek1.441412113L. Kern2.63121080WSep 19 · 13:00F. Nadymacek1.83111187113R. Hudeczek1.8388111162LSep 19 · 12:00F. Nadymacek1.40811111272M. Chalupa2.75119714113LSep 19 · 11:30Z. Pagac2.50111185113F. Nadymacek1.5079111182WSep 19 · 10:00F. Nadymacek1.5311127113R. Hudeczek2.387101181LSep 10 · 16:59M. Grundel1.61101111113F. Nadymacek2.20126991LSep 10 · 16:30L. Velebil1.4451111113F. Nadymacek2.63114751LSep 10 · 15:30F. Nadymacek2.1011135782M. Grundel1.679111111113
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