TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Chalupa vs Frantisek Nadymacek 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 22Finished
Michal Chalupa
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11511131210114––
Frantisek Nadymacek
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:50 and never touched — 57.1% is still 57.1%
Graded at full timeFrantisek Nadymacek to win
57.1%
57.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Chalupa above · Frantisek Nadymacek below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 77 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Frantisek Nadymacek at 57.1%
77 points played in total.
H2H Michal Chalupa 3–5 Frantisek Nadymacek Michal Chalupa has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:50What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Nadymacek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Nadymacek
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chalupa 1750 vs Nadymacek 1732
Chalupa
Correct
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chalupa 80% vs Nadymacek 60%
Chalupa
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chalupa 80% vs Nadymacek 40%
Chalupa
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chalupa +2 · Nadymacek +3
Nadymacek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Nadymacek) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chalupa form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChalupa 2.38 / Nadymacek 1.53
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Nadymacek)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13169978
Chalupa2.38
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog46% won 73 of 159
Down 0–1, comes back24% 21 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 46
Nadymacek1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 24 of 38
Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it90% 18 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeChalupa3wins
AwayNadymacek5wins
4 of 8 to a deciderNadymacek leads 5–3, and 4 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChalupa66.7%2 of 3
AwayNadymacek80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chalupa3Nadymacek5n = 8Nadymacek took 5 of 8
S2Chalupa2Nadymacek6n = 8Nadymacek took 6 of 8
S3Chalupa2Nadymacek6n = 8Nadymacek took 6 of 8
S4Chalupa4Nadymacek1n = 5Chalupa took 4 of 5
S5Chalupa2Nadymacek2n = 4split evenly
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away338%
These 8 meetings
MetricChalupaNadymacekC − NBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match38.240.9−2.7per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChalupaNadymacekBasisWin rate · lifetime391 / 735 vs 36 / 5853.2%62.1%391 / 735 vs 36 / 58Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NadymacekChalupa 2.38/Nadymacek 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.4%
Nadymacek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chalupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 19 · 12:00M. Chalupa52119714113F. Nadymacek49811111272
LAug 31 · 14:30M. Chalupa208660F. Nadymacek331111113
LAug 31 · 10:00M. Chalupa2156100F. Nadymacek341111123
WAug 16 · 16:59M. Chalupa52119911123F. Nadymacek47811117102
WAug 16 · 14:00M. Chalupa3851111113F. Nadymacek35119871
LAug 10 · 15:00M. Chalupa46118111152F. Nadymacek42311134113
LAug 5 · 16:00M. Chalupa4971113992F. Nadymacek511171111113
LJul 23 · 14:00M. Chalupa2812970F. Nadymacek361411113
M. Chalupa10
WSep 22 · 15:30L. Kern2.0041151142M. Chalupa1.73117113113WSep 22 · 14:00M. Chalupa1.611111113D. Szotek2.207360LSep 21 · 21:29R. Hudeczek1.831111113M. Chalupa1.838670WSep 21 · 20:00M. Chalupa1.7311520113D. Szotek2.006111871WSep 21 · 19:30Z. Pagac2.50114641M. Chalupa1.5071111113LSep 21 · 18:00M. Chalupa1.7311691162R. Hudeczek2.00511119113WSep 19 · 13:30M. Chalupa1.441111113Z. Pagac2.639950WSep 19 · 12:00F. Nadymacek1.40811111272M. Chalupa2.75119714113WSep 19 · 11:00R. Hudeczek1.737760M. Chalupa2.001111113WSep 19 · 10:30M. Chalupa1.5311812113Z. Pagac2.389111081
F. Nadymacek10
WSep 22 · 15:00D. Szotek2.759950F. Nadymacek1.401111113WSep 22 · 14:30F. Nadymacek1.441412113L. Kern2.63121080WSep 19 · 13:00F. Nadymacek1.83111187113R. Hudeczek1.8388111162LSep 19 · 12:00F. Nadymacek1.40811111272M. Chalupa2.75119714113LSep 19 · 11:30Z. Pagac2.50111185113F. Nadymacek1.5079111182WSep 19 · 10:00F. Nadymacek1.5311127113R. Hudeczek2.387101181LSep 10 · 16:59M. Grundel1.61101111113F. Nadymacek2.20126991LSep 10 · 16:30L. Velebil1.4451111113F. Nadymacek2.63114751LSep 10 · 15:30F. Nadymacek2.1011135782M. Grundel1.679111111113LSep 10 · 14:30D. Tomica1.671111113F. Nadymacek2.109740
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