TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
David Szotek vs Zbynek Pagac 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 24Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161210711117––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
How it is goingDavid Szotek above · Zbynek Pagac below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 75 set 4, 11-7
75 points played in total.
H2H David Szotek 11–16 Zbynek Pagac David Szotek has won 11 of their 27 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Szotek beat Pagac 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Szotek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pagac form (0%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzotek 1.73 / Pagac 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Pagac)-0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13191953
Szotek1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite49% won 33 of 67
Up 2–0, closes it94% 17 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it71% 25 of 35
Pagac2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 96 of 252
Down 0–1, comes back19% 27 of 146
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 101
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSzotek4wins
AwayPagac6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderPagac leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzotek57.1%4 of 7
AwayPagac100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szotek7Pagac3n = 10Szotek took 7 of 10
S2Szotek4Pagac6n = 10Pagac took 6 of 10
S3Szotek4Pagac6n = 10Pagac took 6 of 10
S4Szotek1Pagac2n = 3Pagac took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSzotekPagacS − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match31.232.6−1.4per matchSweeps43+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzotekPagacBasisWin rate · lifetime153 / 351 vs 328 / 69043.6%47.5%153 / 351 vs 328 / 690Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PagacSzotek 1.73/Pagac 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Szotek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Szotek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 24 · 20:30D. Szotek331111113Z. Pagac269980
LSep 21 · 20:58D. Szotek34116981Z. Pagac3631111113
LSep 21 · 18:30D. Szotek249780Z. Pagac331111113
LSep 13 · 16:30D. Szotek2112540Z. Pagac361411113
WAug 25 · 18:30D. Szotek331111113Z. Pagac216690
WAug 25 · 14:00D. Szotek361411113Z. Pagac2612590
LAug 24 · 12:00D. Szotek219750Z. Pagac331111113
WAug 21 · 21:28D. Szotek331111113Z. Pagac217950
LAug 21 · 19:30D. Szotek48111071282Z. Pagac539121110113
LAug 20 · 15:00D. Szotek29116571Z. Pagac4181111113
D. Szotek10
WSep 24 · 20:30Z. Pagac1.679980D. Szotek2.101111113WSep 24 · 19:30D. Szotek2.251112211113M. Chalupa1.5791411792LSep 24 · 18:30R. Hudeczek1.831111113D. Szotek1.838270WSep 22 · 16:59L. Kern1.61115111082D. Szotek2.20811512113LSep 22 · 16:30D. Szotek2.2571151182L. Kern1.57115115113LSep 22 · 15:00D. Szotek2.759950F. Nadymacek1.401111113LSep 22 · 14:00M. Chalupa1.611111113D. Szotek2.207360LSep 21 · 20:58Z. Pagac1.7331111113D. Szotek2.00116981LSep 21 · 20:00M. Chalupa1.7311520113D. Szotek2.006111871LSep 21 · 19:00R. Hudeczek2.101111113D. Szotek1.679580
Z. Pagac10
LSep 24 · 20:30Z. Pagac1.679980D. Szotek2.101111113LSep 24 · 19:00Z. Pagac2.204760R. Hudeczek1.611111113LSep 24 · 18:00M. Chalupa1.501111113Z. Pagac2.504870LSep 23 · 20:58Z. Pagac1.61911831M. Holub2.2011711113LSep 23 · 20:00R. Hudeczek1.671111113Z. Pagac2.107760LSep 23 · 19:00L. Kern1.401111113Z. Pagac2.758980WSep 23 · 18:30Z. Pagac1.611361310123M. Holub2.2011111112102WSep 21 · 20:58Z. Pagac1.7331111113D. Szotek2.00116981LSep 21 · 20:30R. Hudeczek1.7381111113Z. Pagac2.00116731LSep 21 · 19:30Z. Pagac2.50114641M. Chalupa1.5071111113
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