TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Daniel Unzeitig vs Jiri Holubec 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1197118111111311
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:56 and never touched: 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeJiri Holubec to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDaniel Unzeitig above · Jiri Holubec below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-1
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 93 set 5, 13-11 · our read held Jiri Holubec at 60.1%
93 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Unzeitig 3–7 Jiri Holubec Daniel Unzeitig has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:5660.1%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 3.6pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Holubec
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-7 in 10
Holubec
Wrong
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Unzeitig 1609 vs Holubec 1620
Holubec
Wrong
both rated, 12 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Unzeitig 40% vs Holubec 20%
Unzeitig
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Unzeitig 50% vs Holubec 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Unzeitig -2 · Holubec -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Holubec) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holubec form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUnzeitig 2.25 / Holubec 1.571
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Holubec)-3.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13216739
Unzeitig2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog31% won 33 of 106
Down 0–1, comes back21% 13 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 34
Holubec1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 10 days ago (Sep 20) · back after a break
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 18 of 30
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it77% 13 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeUnzeitig3wins
AwayHolubec7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHolubec leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUnzeitig40%2 of 5
AwayHolubec80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Unzeitig5Holubec5n = 10split evenly
S2Unzeitig4Holubec6n = 10Holubec took 6 of 10
S3Unzeitig4Holubec6n = 10Holubec took 6 of 10
S4Unzeitig4Holubec2n = 6Unzeitig took 4 of 6
S5Unzeitig0Holubec4n = 4Holubec took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricUnzeitigHolubecU − HBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.541.6−4.1per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUnzeitigHolubecBasisWin rate · lifetime145 / 309 vs 46 / 9646.9%47.9%145 / 309 vs 46 / 96Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HolubecUnzeitig 2.25/Holubec 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.1%
Holubec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Unzeitig won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 06:30D. Unzeitig196940J. Holubec331111113
LAug 24 · 16:00D. Unzeitig3711481132J. Holubec50811119113
LJul 13 · 15:00D. Unzeitig3320490J. Holubec442211113
LMay 25 · 17:00D. Unzeitig4512411992J. Holubec521011911113
LMay 25 · 15:00D. Unzeitig2578100J. Holubec341111123
WApr 27 · 15:00D. Unzeitig4111811113J. Holubec34911681
LApr 26 · 16:58D. Unzeitig52111171492J. Holubec47361116113
LApr 26 · 14:30D. Unzeitig4991771152J. Holubec551115117113
WApr 25 · 14:30D. Unzeitig3831112123J. Holubec3811710101
WMar 27 · 17:30D. Unzeitig361411113J. Holubec2912980
D. Unzeitig10
LSep 30 · 14:00M. Holub1.73311511113D. Unzeitig2.0011511792LSep 27 · 17:30D. Unzeitig2.008850Z. Pagac1.731111113WSep 27 · 16:30Z. Pagac1.5061090D. Unzeitig2.501112113WSep 27 · 15:30D. Unzeitig2.501191011113D. Szotek1.5071112752LSep 27 · 14:30T. Kypr1.731441111113D. Unzeitig2.0016119582LSep 17 · 17:30Z. Pagac1.501111113D. Unzeitig2.504380LSep 17 · 16:00Z. Pagac1.5361111113D. Unzeitig2.38117891WSep 17 · 15:00J. Schwan2.506460D. Unzeitig1.501111113WSep 17 · 14:30D. Unzeitig1.6710111111113R. Skacelik2.1012513952WSep 12 · 13:30D. Unzeitig1.701115113A. Walek2.0081360
J. Holubec10
LSep 30 · 14:30J. Holubec1.61111110772J. Simecek2.20491211113LSep 20 · 16:58J. Holubec1.9191111182J. Stolfa1.80114113113LSep 20 · 16:00J. Holubec1.401111117102D. Tuma2.75771311123WSep 20 · 15:30T. Holik2.5081181182J. Holubec1.50113118113LSep 20 · 14:00J. Holubec1.57881181J. Stolfa2.2511116113LSep 20 · 09:30J. Holubec1.578770M. Nohejl2.251111113WSep 20 · 08:30M. Regner1.8013470J. Holubec1.911511113WSep 20 · 07:30J. Holubec1.80111011113M. Nohejl1.91412991WSep 20 · 06:30M. Chlebecek1.8328110J. Holubec1.831111133LSep 19 · 21:29J. Zuzanek1.836111212113J. Holubec1.83115141092
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