TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Daniel Unzeitig vs Zbynek Pagac 0-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811811511––––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:05 and never touched — 57.6% is still 57.6%
Graded at full timeZbynek Pagac to win
57.6%
57.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDaniel Unzeitig above · Zbynek Pagac below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 54 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Zbynek Pagac at 57.6%
54 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Unzeitig 10–32 Zbynek Pagac Daniel Unzeitig has won 10 of their 42 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Unzeitig beat Pagac 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:05What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Pagac
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-32 in 42
Pagac
Correct
gap of 22 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Unzeitig 1637 vs Pagac 1579
Unzeitig
Wrong
both rated, 58 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Unzeitig 40% vs Pagac 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Unzeitig 70% vs Pagac 20%
Unzeitig
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Unzeitig +2 · Pagac -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pagac) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pagac form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUnzeitig 2.00 / Pagac 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Pagac)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13207457
Unzeitig2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog30% won 31 of 102
Down 0–1, comes back21% 13 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 33
Pagac1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite61% won 121 of 198
Up 2–0, closes it95% 53 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it79% 79 of 100
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeUnzeitig1wins
AwayPagac9wins
4 of 10 to a deciderPagac leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUnzeitig20%1 of 5
AwayPagac100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Unzeitig5Pagac5n = 10split evenly
S2Unzeitig3Pagac7n = 10Pagac took 7 of 10
S3Unzeitig3Pagac7n = 10Pagac took 7 of 10
S4Unzeitig2Pagac4n = 6Pagac took 4 of 6
S5Unzeitig0Pagac4n = 4Pagac took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricUnzeitigPagacU − PBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match33.640.2−6.6per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUnzeitigPagacBasisWin rate · lifetime145 / 307 vs 330 / 69847.2%47.3%145 / 307 vs 330 / 698Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.536.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PagacUnzeitig 2.00/Pagac 1.73
Hit
What we said
54%
Pagac · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Pagac won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 27 · 16:30D. Unzeitig341112113Z. Pagac2561090
LSep 17 · 17:30D. Unzeitig154380Z. Pagac331111113
LSep 17 · 16:00D. Unzeitig35117891Z. Pagac3961111113
LSep 12 · 10:00D. Unzeitig361181071Z. Pagac4061112113
LSep 11 · 16:30D. Unzeitig228680Z. Pagac331111113
LSep 10 · 19:00D. Unzeitig4211751452Z. Pagac549111112113
LAug 4 · 06:30D. Unzeitig198650Z. Pagac331111113
LAug 3 · 10:00D. Unzeitig4181151162Z. Pagac48119116113
LJul 18 · 15:00D. Unzeitig44711131032Z. Pagac501151112113
LJul 8 · 08:30D. Unzeitig48119111072Z. Pagac47811512113
D. Unzeitig10
WSep 27 · 16:30Z. Pagac1.5061090D. Unzeitig2.501112113WSep 27 · 15:30D. Unzeitig2.501191011113D. Szotek1.5071112752LSep 27 · 14:30T. Kypr1.731441111113D. Unzeitig2.0016119582LSep 17 · 17:30Z. Pagac1.501111113D. Unzeitig2.504380LSep 17 · 16:00Z. Pagac1.5361111113D. Unzeitig2.38117891WSep 17 · 15:00J. Schwan2.506460D. Unzeitig1.501111113WSep 17 · 14:30D. Unzeitig1.6710111111113R. Skacelik2.1012513952WSep 12 · 13:30D. Unzeitig1.701115113A. Walek2.0081360WSep 12 · 12:30D. Unzeitig1.671111113A. Walek2.103660WSep 12 · 11:00D. Unzeitig2.38111287113M. Bereiter1.53610111192
Z. Pagac10
LSep 27 · 16:30Z. Pagac1.5061090D. Unzeitig2.501112113WSep 27 · 15:00Z. Pagac2.2012811113T. Kypr1.611011961WSep 27 · 14:00D. Szotek1.73411761Z. Pagac2.0011911113LSep 26 · 21:00M. Chalupa1.4011115113Z. Pagac2.75971181LSep 26 · 20:30T. Kypr1.831111113Z. Pagac1.833980LSep 26 · 19:30Z. Pagac2.6310940M. Chalupa1.441211113LSep 26 · 18:30D. Szotek1.7311411113Z. Pagac2.00611781LSep 24 · 20:58D. Szotek1.7311127113Z. Pagac2.006101171WSep 17 · 17:30Z. Pagac1.501111113D. Unzeitig2.504380WSep 17 · 16:00Z. Pagac1.5361111113D. Unzeitig2.38117891
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