TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Marcel Cmil vs Milan Vydra 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 28Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119113117––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:27 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMilan Vydra to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMarcel Cmil above · Milan Vydra below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 52 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Milan Vydra at 54.0%
52 points played in total.
H2H Marcel Cmil 16–15 Milan Vydra Milan Vydra has won 15 of their 31 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:27What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Vydra
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-15 in 31
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cmil 1388 vs Vydra 1298
Cmil
Correct
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cmil 60% vs Vydra 40%
Cmil
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cmil 60% vs Vydra 40%
Cmil
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cmil -1 · Vydra -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vydra) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vydra form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCmil 1.91 / Vydra 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vydra)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13208171
Cmil1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog51% won 59 of 116
Down 0–1, comes back32% 20 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back18% 7 of 39
Vydra1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite46% won 25 of 55
Up 2–0, closes it81% 13 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it72% 18 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCmil5wins
AwayVydra5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCmil75%3 of 4
AwayVydra66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cmil4Vydra6n = 10Vydra took 6 of 10
S2Cmil3Vydra7n = 10Vydra took 7 of 10
S3Cmil4Vydra6n = 10Vydra took 6 of 10
S4Cmil3Vydra1n = 4Cmil took 3 of 4
S5Cmil3Vydra1n = 4Cmil took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricCmilVydraC − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.237.6−4.4per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCmilVydraBasisWin rate · lifetime355 / 654 vs 101 / 20254.3%50%355 / 654 vs 101 / 202Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.938.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VydraCmil 1.91/Vydra 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Vydra · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Cmil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 19:00M. Cmil551091114113M. Vydra49121191252
LAug 24 · 19:00M. Cmil158250M. Vydra331111113
LJul 27 · 15:30M. Cmil4011117922M. Vydra48871111113
WJul 23 · 06:30M. Cmil44821111123M. Vydra45111167102
LJul 18 · 20:28M. Cmil145630M. Vydra331111113
WJul 18 · 17:30M. Cmil521171111123M. Vydra48511139102
WJul 11 · 06:00M. Cmil441614143M. Vydra381412120
WJun 28 · 12:28M. Cmil331111113M. Vydra168440
LJun 28 · 11:30M. Cmil156630M. Vydra331111113
LJun 27 · 17:13M. Cmil208660M. Vydra331111113
M. Cmil10
LSep 28 · 06:30M. Cmil1.8311461232D. Sabuka1.838111110113WSep 28 · 05:30M. Cmil1.671211812113L. Boura2.10108111452WSep 26 · 20:59M. Cmil1.73118114113J. Jnr2.0081171142WSep 26 · 20:00J. Jnr1.83711971M. Cmil1.8311411113LSep 26 · 19:00D. Sabuka2.101111113M. Cmil1.676780LSep 26 · 17:30J. Seeman1.44115511113M. Cmil2.6381111752WSep 20 · 21:04M. Cmil1.801111123D. Sabuka1.9189100WSep 20 · 20:00M. Cmil1.611211113A. Akopyan2.2010890LSep 20 · 18:30D. Sabuka2.009111111113M. Cmil1.7311413972WSep 20 · 18:00J. Mares3.40451591M. Cmil1.30111113113
M. Vydra10
LSep 28 · 07:00M. Vydra1.676570L. Boura2.101111113WSep 28 · 06:00M. Vydra2.25811116113D. Sabuka1.5711471182LSep 8 · 20:31M. Vydra1.578790V. Coubal2.251111113WSep 8 · 19:30V. Coubal2.255670M. Vydra1.571111113LSep 8 · 19:00M. Vydra1.61121191252M. Cmil2.201091114113LSep 8 · 18:00M. Vydra2.63611691J. Jnr1.4411911113LAug 24 · 21:03M. Holub1.831171110113M. Vydra1.8361171282WAug 24 · 19:30V. Coubal1.8310930M. Vydra1.831211113WAug 24 · 19:00M. Vydra1.801111113M. Cmil1.918250LAug 24 · 18:00M. Vydra1.80138110M. Holub1.911511133
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