TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Frantisek Krcil vs Arkadiusz Mugowski 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 24Finished
Frantisek Krcil
Home
1.41
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161141315113––
Arkadiusz Mugowski
Away
2.60
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:20 and never touched — 65.5% is still 65.5%
Graded at full timeFrantisek Krcil to win
65.5%
65.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
74 points played in total.
Set by set
1161141315113––
H2H Frantisek Krcil 12–1 Arkadiusz Mugowski Arkadiusz Mugowski has won 1 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:20What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.41 (65%)
Krcil
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-1 in 13
Krcil
Correct
gap of 11 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krcil 1387 vs Mugowski 1385
Krcil
Correct
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krcil 40% vs Mugowski 60%
Mugowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krcil 40% vs Mugowski 70%
Mugowski
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krcil +1 · Mugowski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Krcil) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mugowski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrcil 1.41 / Mugowski 2.60
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Krcil)-0.9pp
TT Elite Series · #13187725
Krcil1.41
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite50% won 6 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it71% 5 of 7
Mugowski2.60
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 171 of 414
Down 0–1, comes back26% 64 of 247
Down 0–2, comes back15% 20 of 133
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrcil9wins
AwayMugowski1wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKrcil leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrcil100%7 of 7
AwayMugowski33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krcil7Mugowski3n = 10Krcil took 7 of 10
S2Krcil6Mugowski4n = 10Krcil took 6 of 10
S3Krcil3Mugowski7n = 10Mugowski took 7 of 10
S4Krcil7Mugowski1n = 8Krcil took 7 of 8
S5Krcil4Mugowski0n = 4Krcil took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrcilMugowskiK − MBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.935.6+6.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrcilMugowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime189 / 423 vs 914 / 198844.7%46%189 / 423 vs 914 / 1988Avg sets wonper match1.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.737.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrcilKrcil 1.41/Mugowski 2.60
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.9%
Krcil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Krcil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 24 · 06:05F. Krcil46111113113A. Mugowski28641531
WFeb 28 · 08:35F. Krcil5811131111123A. Mugowski48515135102
WFeb 10 · 10:50F. Krcil44811311113A. Mugowski4111811652
LFeb 10 · 09:35F. Krcil193880A. Mugowski331111113
WJan 18 · 14:35F. Krcil4011711113A. Mugowski32611691
WAug 24 · 11:05F. Krcil4412129113A. Mugowski4010101191
WAug 3 · 11:05F. Krcil4111118113A. Mugowski29761151
WJun 9 · 08:05F. Krcil331111113A. Mugowski198830
WJun 5 · 10:35F. Krcil49111179113A. Mugowski4256111192
WJun 5 · 06:05F. Krcil45841111113A. Mugowski4411117782
F. Krcil10
WSep 24 · 04:30F. Krcil2.101112143R. Stapor1.65910120LSep 24 · 03:50M. Lukaszewski1.851114113F. Krcil1.8541280LSep 21 · 13:55M. Zwolinski2.2511916113F. Krcil1.579111461LSep 21 · 13:05A. Sobel1.361111113F. Krcil2.953670WSep 21 · 12:15F. Krcil2.2511116113P. Blocho1.55981171WSep 21 · 10:35F. Krcil3.2011811113B. Czerwinski1.30311461LSep 21 · 09:50D. Solilo1.30115115123F. Krcil3.25611611102LSep 21 · 08:35M. Zwolinski2.251111113F. Krcil1.573680WSep 21 · 07:20F. Krcil1.76611118113M. Lukaszewski1.9011951152LSep 21 · 06:05A. Sobel1.331111113F. Krcil2.955360
A. Mugowski10
WSep 24 · 04:55M. Lukaszewski1.9591111101A. Mugowski1.7011135123LSep 24 · 03:25B. Wisniewski2.10111195113A. Mugowski1.6554111162WSep 21 · 24:10A. Mugowski1.54114113113W. Gluszek2.2521181192LSep 20 · 23:20A. Mugowski2.3066100K. Kostyk1.551111123WSep 20 · 21:55A. Mugowski1.9011911113P. Krukar1.76311381LSep 20 · 21:30A. Mugowski1.70118111082D. Kotwica2.00511912113WSep 20 · 20:30K. Kostyk1.52961111132A. Mugowski2.37111158153WSep 20 · 19:20A. Mugowski1.5411511113W. Gluszek2.25911781WSep 20 · 18:10A. Eliasz2.5091141192A. Mugowski1.44118115113WSep 20 · 16:55P. Krukar2.1013841192A. Mugowski1.601111116113
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