TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Arkadiusz Mugowski
Home
1.54
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
112411118311119
Wojciech Gluszek
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:35 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeArkadiusz Mugowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
81 points played in total.
Set by set
112411118311119
H2H Arkadiusz Mugowski 49–52 Wojciech Gluszek Arkadiusz Mugowski has won 49 of their 101 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Mugowski beat Gluszek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:35What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.54 (59%)
Mugowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
49-52 in 101
Gluszek
Wrong
gap of 3 in 101, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mugowski 1402 vs Gluszek 1119
Mugowski
Correct
both rated, 284 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mugowski 60% vs Gluszek 40%
Mugowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mugowski 80% vs Gluszek 20%
Mugowski
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mugowski -1 · Gluszek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Mugowski) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMugowski 1.54 / Gluszek 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Mugowski)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13161706
Mugowski1.54
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 96 of 175
Up 2–0, closes it94% 48 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it80% 75 of 94
Gluszek2.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 108 of 310
Down 0–1, comes back18% 32 of 180
Down 0–2, comes back5% 6 of 115
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMugowski2wins
AwayGluszek8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderGluszek leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMugowski50%2 of 4
AwayGluszek100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mugowski4Gluszek6n = 10Gluszek took 6 of 10
S2Mugowski2Gluszek8n = 10Gluszek took 8 of 10
S3Mugowski4Gluszek6n = 10Gluszek took 6 of 10
S4Mugowski3Gluszek3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricMugowskiGluszekM − GBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match31.436.9−5.5per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMugowskiGluszekBasisWin rate · lifetime920 / 2000 vs 838 / 178246%47%920 / 2000 vs 838 / 1782Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MugowskiMugowski 1.54/Gluszek 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.2%
Mugowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Mugowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 20 · 19:20A. Mugowski3811511113W. Gluszek35911781
WSep 19 · 16:15A. Mugowski331111113W. Gluszek156450
LJun 10 · 15:50A. Mugowski34491381W. Gluszek44111111113
LMay 28 · 17:20A. Mugowski184770W. Gluszek331111113
LMay 27 · 18:10A. Mugowski301111351W. Gluszek4413911113
LMay 26 · 18:55A. Mugowski511071111122W. Gluszek47121155143
LMay 13 · 10:10A. Mugowski46111071172W. Gluszek45912112113
LMay 6 · 19:40A. Mugowski30115681W. Gluszek4071111113
LApr 12 · 20:10A. Mugowski199280W. Gluszek331111113
LMar 31 · 19:40A. Mugowski155460W. Gluszek331111113
A. Mugowski10
LSep 20 · 23:20A. Mugowski2.3066100K. Kostyk1.551111123WSep 20 · 21:55A. Mugowski1.9011911113P. Krukar1.76311381LSep 20 · 21:30A. Mugowski1.70118111082D. Kotwica2.00511912113WSep 20 · 20:30K. Kostyk1.52961111132A. Mugowski2.37111158153WSep 20 · 19:20A. Mugowski1.5411511113W. Gluszek2.25911781WSep 20 · 18:10A. Eliasz2.5091141192A. Mugowski1.44118115113WSep 20 · 16:55P. Krukar2.1013841192A. Mugowski1.601111116113WSep 20 · 15:25D. Kotwica2.10115413112A. Mugowski1.659111111133WSep 20 · 24:35A. Pilch2.0012890A. Mugowski1.731411113WSep 19 · 22:55P. Maruszak1.73871141A. Mugowski2.0011117113
W. Gluszek10
WSep 20 · 23:45W. Gluszek3.30111811113P. Krukar1.2191111992LSep 20 · 22:55W. Gluszek1.889890D. Kotwica1.731111113WSep 20 · 21:05W. Gluszek3.25811118113K. Kostyk1.2711651182LSep 20 · 20:05P. Krukar1.301111113W. Gluszek3.106760LSep 20 · 19:20A. Mugowski1.5411511113W. Gluszek2.25911781LSep 20 · 17:20D. Kotwica1.831111123W. Gluszek1.8668100LSep 20 · 16:35A. Eliasz1.95141011113W. Gluszek1.741212161LSep 20 · 15:00K. Kostyk1.231191111113W. Gluszek3.1591161362LSep 19 · 23:20D. Kotwica1.90111113113W. Gluszek1.801361191LSep 19 · 22:35P. Staniszewski1.7591114123W. Gluszek1.9011312101
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