TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Lukas Adam vs Matus Zelinka 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 24Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811118511113911
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:51 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeMatus Zelinka to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Adam above · Matus Zelinka below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 88 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Matus Zelinka at 60.1%
88 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Adam 10–18 Matus Zelinka Lukas Adam has won 10 of their 28 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:51What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Zelinka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-18 in 28
Zelinka
Correct
gap of 8 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adam 1722 vs Zelinka 1770
Zelinka
Correct
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adam 60% vs Zelinka 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adam 50% vs Zelinka 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Adam +2 · Zelinka -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Zelinka) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adam form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdam 2.25 / Zelinka 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Zelinka)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13186384
Adam2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 55 of 120
Down 0–1, comes back25% 14 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 24
Zelinka1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite56% won 68 of 122
Up 2–0, closes it91% 29 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it82% 46 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdam5wins
AwayZelinka5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdam57.1%4 of 7
AwayZelinka66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adam7Zelinka3n = 10Adam took 7 of 10
S2Adam4Zelinka6n = 10Zelinka took 6 of 10
S3Adam2Zelinka8n = 10Zelinka took 8 of 10
S4Adam6Zelinka3n = 9Adam took 6 of 9
S5Adam3Zelinka3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamZelinkaA − ZBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.740.4−0.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamZelinkaBasisWin rate · lifetime283 / 546 vs 211 / 39451.8%53.6%283 / 546 vs 211 / 394Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.939.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZelinkaAdam 2.25/Zelinka 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Zelinka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Zelinka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 24 · 19:45L. Adam4481151192M. Zelinka44118113113
WSep 21 · 10:45L. Adam49118811113M. Zelinka3951111662
WAug 11 · 08:48L. Adam4071111113M. Zelinka32116961
LAug 11 · 06:15L. Adam167540M. Zelinka331111113
LAug 10 · 09:15L. Adam3711611452M. Zelinka46511811113
WJul 29 · 08:18L. Adam48131193123M. Zelinka521191111102
LJul 29 · 07:15L. Adam32134781M. Zelinka44111111113
WJul 28 · 10:45L. Adam50119712113M. Zelinka40311111052
WMay 14 · 06:15L. Adam4011117113M. Zelinka28631181
LApr 27 · 10:30L. Adam4111761162M. Zelinka46711116113
L. Adam10
WSep 24 · 20:48L. Adam1.67116128113R. Pisa2.10711101142WSep 24 · 18:15V. Grubr2.251010111392L. Adam1.571212611113WSep 24 · 17:45R. Pisa2.203511131L. Adam1.6111119153LSep 22 · 12:19L. Rulc1.831111113L. Adam1.837990WSep 22 · 11:15L. Adam1.73411711123L. Rulc2.00115117102LSep 22 · 10:15L. Adam1.73861151T. Liska2.0011116113LSep 22 · 09:15L. Adam1.67117118102M. Makara2.10911911123LSep 21 · 12:49R. Pisa2.381111113L. Adam1.538530WSep 21 · 11:15M. Stibor1.671511911102L. Adam2.10179119123WSep 21 · 10:45L. Adam2.38118811113M. Zelinka1.5351111662
M. Zelinka10
LSep 24 · 20:19M. Zelinka1.5311911892V. Grubr2.38911711113LSep 24 · 18:45R. Pisa2.25111167113M. Zelinka1.5774111192LSep 24 · 17:15V. Grubr2.63113611173M. Zelinka1.44611115152WSep 23 · 08:43L. Dobias1.83111291252M. Zelinka1.835141110113WSep 23 · 07:15V. Burylov1.8311380M. Zelinka1.831311113WSep 23 · 06:45M. Zelinka1.801311713113M. Makara1.91159111172LSep 23 · 05:45M. Zelinka1.91911891L. Dobias1.8011311113LSep 22 · 08:49M. Zelinka2.388890M. Bouska1.531111113WSep 22 · 07:45L. Dobias1.8011119101M. Zelinka1.9113611123LSep 21 · 10:45L. Adam2.38118811113M. Zelinka1.5351111662
Upcoming Matches
L. Adam
Nothing scheduled
M. Zelinka
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