TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Matus Zelinka vs Ladislav Dobias 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Matus Zelinka
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911113811911––
Ladislav Dobias
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:18 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLadislav Dobias to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMatus Zelinka above · Ladislav Dobias below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 73 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Ladislav Dobias at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Matus Zelinka 30–33 Ladislav Dobias Matus Zelinka has won 30 of their 63 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 22h before this match
Zelinka beat Dobias 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:18What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Dobias
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-33 in 63
Dobias
Correct
gap of 3 in 63, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zelinka 1773 vs Dobias 1695
Zelinka
Wrong
both rated, 78 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zelinka 60% vs Dobias 20%
Zelinka
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zelinka 60% vs Dobias 20%
Zelinka
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zelinka -1 · Dobias +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dobias)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dobias form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZelinka 1.91 / Dobias 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Dobias)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13180063
Zelinka1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog52% won 24 of 46
Down 0–1, comes back37% 10 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back9% 1 of 11
Dobias1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite57% won 197 of 344
Up 2–0, closes it95% 73 of 77
Up 1–0, closes it80% 142 of 178
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZelinka7wins
AwayDobias3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderZelinka leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZelinka100%4 of 4
AwayDobias50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zelinka4Dobias6n = 10Dobias took 6 of 10
S2Zelinka8Dobias2n = 10Zelinka took 8 of 10
S3Zelinka7Dobias3n = 10Zelinka took 7 of 10
S4Zelinka6Dobias3n = 9Zelinka took 6 of 9
S5Zelinka1Dobias2n = 3Dobias took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricZelinkaDobiasZ − DBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.538.5+2.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZelinkaDobiasBasisWin rate · lifetime210 / 391 vs 424 / 76653.7%55.4%210 / 391 vs 424 / 766Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.941.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DobiasZelinka 1.91/Dobias 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Dobias · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Dobias won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 22 · 07:45M. Zelinka4213611123L. Dobias4111119101
WSep 10 · 08:53M. Zelinka4012116113L. Dobias391091191
LSep 10 · 07:45M. Zelinka35871191L. Dobias4011117113
WSep 9 · 11:45M. Zelinka331111113L. Dobias248970
WSep 8 · 08:18M. Zelinka4011117113L. Dobias35971181
LSep 8 · 07:15M. Zelinka49711912102L. Dobias501161110123
WAug 28 · 08:23M. Zelinka4291111113L. Dobias32117681
WAug 28 · 05:45M. Zelinka4281111123L. Dobias341194101
LAug 25 · 08:53M. Zelinka3661111532L. Dobias44113811113
WAug 25 · 07:45M. Zelinka46912113113L. Dobias46111091152
M. Zelinka10
LSep 22 · 08:49M. Zelinka2.388890M. Bouska1.531111113WSep 22 · 07:45L. Dobias1.8011119101M. Zelinka1.9113611123LSep 22 · 06:45V. Burylov1.80127911113M. Zelinka1.91101111882WSep 22 · 05:15M. Bouska1.441110861M. Zelinka2.6381211113WSep 21 · 12:21M. Zelinka1.331111113M. Stibor3.256860WSep 21 · 11:45R. Pisa2.1051160M. Zelinka1.671113113LSep 21 · 10:45L. Adam2.38118811113M. Zelinka1.5351111662LSep 21 · 09:15M. Stibor2.251111113M. Zelinka1.575780WSep 20 · 12:43R. Pisa2.50661181M. Zelinka1.5011116113WSep 20 · 11:15M. Zelinka1.6111611113O. Kaderabek2.20711591
L. Dobias10
WSep 23 · 06:15V. Burylov1.91811111242L. Dobias1.80117914113WSep 22 · 08:18L. Dobias1.7311116113V. Burylov2.00651191LSep 22 · 07:45L. Dobias1.8011119101M. Zelinka1.9113611123LSep 22 · 06:15M. Bouska1.611117113L. Dobias2.2061580LSep 22 · 05:45V. Burylov2.0020117113L. Dobias1.731881171LSep 18 · 20:13L. Dobias1.4491190A. Snr2.631113113LSep 18 · 19:45L. Dobias1.73511671V. Burylov2.0011611113WSep 18 · 18:15A. Snr2.6369121142L. Dobias1.441111109113LSep 18 · 17:45J. Sr1.831211810113L. Dobias1.83106111232LSep 18 · 12:38V. Burylov1.911571011113L. Dobias1.80131112652
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