TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mateusz Karpiuk vs Kacper Kwiatkowski 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 23Finished
Mateusz Karpiuk
Home
1.65
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11614122022115––
Kacper Kwiatkowski
Away
2.05
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:14 and never touched — 60.0% is still 60.0%
Graded at full timeMateusz Karpiuk to win
60.0%
60.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
101 points played in total.
Set by set
11614122022115––
H2H Mateusz Karpiuk 11–12 Kacper Kwiatkowski Mateusz Karpiuk has won 11 of their 23 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:14What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (55%)
Karpiuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-12 in 23
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karpiuk 1450 vs Kwiatkowski 1355
Karpiuk
Correct
both rated, 96 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karpiuk 80% vs Kwiatkowski 20%
Karpiuk
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karpiuk 80% vs Kwiatkowski 30%
Karpiuk
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Karpiuk +2 · Kwiatkowski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Karpiuk) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kwiatkowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (49%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarpiuk 1.65 / Kwiatkowski 2.05
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Karpiuk)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13185370
Karpiuk1.65
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite51% won 60 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it96% 26 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it70% 40 of 57
Kwiatkowski2.05
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 70 of 185
Down 0–1, comes back22% 24 of 109
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKarpiuk5wins
AwayKwiatkowski5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKarpiuk75%3 of 4
AwayKwiatkowski66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karpiuk4Kwiatkowski6n = 10Kwiatkowski took 6 of 10
S2Karpiuk7Kwiatkowski3n = 10Karpiuk took 7 of 10
S3Karpiuk4Kwiatkowski6n = 10Kwiatkowski took 6 of 10
S4Karpiuk3Kwiatkowski5n = 8Kwiatkowski took 5 of 8
S5Karpiuk2Kwiatkowski1n = 3Karpiuk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKarpiukKwiatkowskiKarpiuk − KwiatkowskiBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.141.2−1.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarpiukKwiatkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime145 / 315 vs 122 / 28346%43.1%145 / 315 vs 122 / 283Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.936.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KarpiukKarpiuk 1.65/Kwiatkowski 2.05
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Karpiuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Karpiuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 22 · 23:55M. Karpiuk381112153K. Kwiatkowski26310130
WSep 22 · 17:55M. Karpiuk4111118113K. Kwiatkowski30951151
WSep 21 · 21:20M. Karpiuk4211119113K. Kwiatkowski32671181
LSep 21 · 15:25M. Karpiuk42791881K. Kwiatkowski49111116113
LAug 25 · 01:30M. Karpiuk32811491K. Kwiatkowski4111811113
LAug 24 · 20:05M. Karpiuk4171351152K. Kwiatkowski511111117113
LAug 23 · 23:20M. Karpiuk147250K. Kwiatkowski331111113
WAug 23 · 17:20M. Karpiuk511011117123K. Kwiatkowski50128911102
LAug 18 · 01:50M. Karpiuk5211910221K. Kwiatkowski5471112243
WAug 17 · 18:10M. Karpiuk48911114133K. Kwiatkowski46118511112
M. Karpiuk10
WSep 23 · 18:20M. Karpiuk3.601211711113H. Tkaczyk1.2214511332WSep 23 · 05:05J. Michalik1.989812101M. Karpiuk1.73111110123LSep 23 · 03:55M. Karpiuk1.80119119102M. Baran1.92911811123WSep 23 · 02:45M. Brunner2.05611791M. Karpiuk1.5611611113WSep 23 · 01:30K. Delikatny2.0091180M. Karpiuk1.711113113WSep 22 · 23:55K. Kwiatkowski1.49310130M. Karpiuk2.501112153WSep 22 · 23:05M. Brunner2.05711491M. Karpiuk1.6511411113WSep 22 · 21:55M. Karpiuk2.001112117113M. Baran1.71131091142WSep 22 · 20:45P. Gesiarz1.831388111M. Karpiuk1.83111111133LSep 22 · 19:30K. Delikatny1.831111113M. Karpiuk1.835370
K. Kwiatkowski10
LSep 23 · 17:55J. Slawomir1.831111133K. Kwiatkowski1.8342110LSep 23 · 04:20K. Kwiatkowski1.529380M. Brunner2.371111113WSep 23 · 03:05K. Kwiatkowski1.651112113K. Delikatny2.1041090LSep 23 · 01:55K. Kwiatkowski1.6471060M. Baran2.141112113LSep 23 · 24:45J. Michalik2.07111011113K. Kwiatkowski1.68912791LSep 22 · 23:55K. Kwiatkowski1.49310130M. Karpiuk2.501112153WSep 22 · 22:20K. Kwiatkowski1.6651111123P. Gesiarz2.101198101LSep 22 · 21:05K. Kwiatkowski1.55111556102K. Delikatny2.306131111123LSep 22 · 19:55K. Kwiatkowski1.5071111742M. Baran2.40119211113WSep 22 · 18:45M. Brunner2.65710121192K. Kwiatkowski1.321112101113
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