TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mateusz Karpiuk vs Mateusz Baran 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 23Finished
Mateusz Karpiuk
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 6
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1199111189111012
Mateusz Baran
Away
1.92
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:29 and never touched — 63.0% is still 63.0%
Graded at full timeMateusz Karpiuk to win
63.0%
63.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
101 points played in total.
Set by set
1199111189111012
H2H Mateusz Karpiuk 7–2 Mateusz Baran Mateusz Baran has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Karpiuk beat Baran 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:29What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (52%)
Karpiuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-2 in 9
Karpiuk
Wrong
gap of 5 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karpiuk 1436 vs Baran 1365
Karpiuk
Wrong
both rated, 71 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karpiuk 100% vs Baran 60%
Karpiuk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karpiuk 90% vs Baran 60%
Karpiuk
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Karpiuk +6 · Baran +1
Karpiuk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Karpiuk) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpiuk form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarpiuk 1.80 / Baran 1.92
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Karpiuk)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13170772
Karpiuk1.80
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite50% won 57 of 115
Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it69% 37 of 54
Baran1.92
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog44% won 30 of 69
Down 0–1, comes back27% 12 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeKarpiuk7wins
AwayBaran2wins
2 of 9 to a deciderKarpiuk leads 7–2, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKarpiuk100%3 of 3
AwayBaran33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karpiuk3Baran6n = 9Baran took 6 of 9
S2Karpiuk9Baran0n = 9Karpiuk took 9 of 9
S3Karpiuk7Baran2n = 9Karpiuk took 7 of 9
S4Karpiuk4Baran3n = 7Karpiuk took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home444%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricKarpiukBaranK − BBasisWins72+5in 9 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match40.033.9+6.1per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarpiukBaranBasisWin rate · lifetime143 / 312 vs 89 / 16945.8%52.7%143 / 312 vs 89 / 169Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KarpiukKarpiuk 1.80/Baran 1.92
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Karpiuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Baran won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 22 · 21:55M. Karpiuk521112117113M. Baran47131091142
WSep 22 · 01:50M. Karpiuk4071111113M. Baran30115591
WSep 21 · 18:10M. Karpiuk331111113M. Baran217680
WSep 16 · 03:55M. Karpiuk331111113M. Baran238960
LSep 15 · 21:55M. Karpiuk34911771M. Baran3811511113
LAug 9 · 21:20M. Karpiuk4361111872M. Baran46116711113
WAug 9 · 15:25M. Karpiuk44111111113M. Baran35138951
WJul 21 · 01:50M. Karpiuk4211119113M. Baran32961161
WJul 20 · 20:05M. Karpiuk3961111113M. Baran33117691
M. Karpiuk10
WSep 23 · 02:45M. Brunner2.05611791M. Karpiuk1.5611611113WSep 23 · 01:30K. Delikatny2.0091180M. Karpiuk1.711113113WSep 22 · 23:55K. Kwiatkowski1.49310130M. Karpiuk2.501112153WSep 22 · 23:05M. Brunner2.05711491M. Karpiuk1.6511411113WSep 22 · 21:55M. Karpiuk2.001112117113M. Baran1.71131091142WSep 22 · 20:45P. Gesiarz1.831388111M. Karpiuk1.83111111133LSep 22 · 19:30K. Delikatny1.831111113M. Karpiuk1.835370WSep 22 · 17:55K. Kwiatkowski1.43951151M. Karpiuk2.4311118113WSep 22 · 01:50M. Baran1.83115591M. Karpiuk1.8371111113WSep 22 · 24:50M. Karpiuk3.0011712113J. Zelezik1.369111091
M. Baran10
WSep 23 · 04:40K. Delikatny2.00781171M. Baran1.7111119113WSep 23 · 01:55K. Kwiatkowski1.6471060M. Baran2.141112113LSep 23 · 01:10M. Brunner2.061110911113M. Baran1.5551211692WSep 22 · 23:30J. Michalik1.8112101241M. Baran1.74141210113WSep 22 · 22:40K. Delikatny1.9110111041M. Baran1.7112912113LSep 22 · 21:55M. Karpiuk2.001112117113M. Baran1.71131091142WSep 22 · 19:55K. Kwiatkowski1.5071111742M. Baran2.40119211113WSep 22 · 19:10P. Gesiarz1.821561131M. Baran1.7217117113LSep 22 · 17:30M. Brunner1.90111166113M. Baran1.7596111162LSep 22 · 01:50M. Baran1.83115591M. Karpiuk1.8371111113
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