TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Kacper Marchlewski vs Michal Durda 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Kacper Marchlewski
Home
1.90
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1171210811911911
Michal Durda
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:29 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Durda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
99 points played in total.
Set by set
1171210811911911
H2H Kacper Marchlewski 1–1 Michal Durda Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:29What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Durda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Marchlewski 1288 vs Durda 1292
Durda
Correct
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marchlewski 60% vs Durda 20%
Marchlewski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marchlewski 70% vs Durda 30%
Marchlewski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marchlewski -1 · Durda -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Durda)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Durda form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarchlewski 1.90 / Durda 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Durda)+2.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13179900
Marchlewski1.90
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog35% won 46 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back15% 10 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 36
Durda1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite74% won 193 of 262
Up 2–0, closes it96% 96 of 100
Up 1–0, closes it88% 136 of 154
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeMarchlewski1wins
AwayDurda1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricMarchlewskiDurdaM − DBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match41.530.5+11.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarchlewskiDurdaBasisWin rate · lifetime151 / 344 vs 206 / 28243.9%73.1%151 / 344 vs 206 / 282Avg sets wonper match1.92.5per matchAvg pointsper match36.839.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DurdaMarchlewski 1.90/Durda 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Durda · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Durda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 21 · 23:45K. Marchlewski331111113M. Durda177550
LSep 21 · 17:20K. Marchlewski50119119102M. Durda44411611123
K. Marchlewski10
LSep 22 · 17:20K. Marchlewski1.80115981M. Skorski1.8651111113WSep 22 · 16:20W. Gluszek1.85136100K. Marchlewski1.851511123LSep 22 · 15:25K. Marchlewski1.88981261J. Rolak1.82111110113WSep 22 · 24:10A. Myszewski1.9021111692K. Marchlewski1.75117811113WSep 21 · 23:45K. Marchlewski—1111113M. Durda—7550WSep 21 · 22:55K. Marchlewski1.78911119113J. Przewlocki1.9311731192WSep 21 · 21:05K. Marchlewski2.101111113M. Kowalczyk1.656880WSep 21 · 20:05J. Przewlocki1.5010470K. Marchlewski2.401211113WSep 21 · 19:20M. Kowalczyk1.619870K. Marchlewski2.151111113LSep 21 · 17:20M. Durda1.07411611123K. Marchlewski7.75119119102
M. Durda10
LSep 22 · 17:45W. Gluszek3.451113113M. Durda1.2671110LSep 22 · 17:00M. Durda1.95311641J. Rolak1.7411311113WSep 22 · 15:50M. Durda1.761111123D. Szlubowski1.9054100LSep 22 · 24:35M. Durda1.15112741J. Przewlocki5.0081111113LSep 21 · 23:45K. Marchlewski—1111113M. Durda—7550WSep 21 · 22:35M. Durda1.12911522113M. Kowalczyk6.00116112062LSep 21 · 21:55A. Myszewski1.501111123M. Durda2.4357100LSep 21 · 19:40M. Durda1.0998111392P. Strus6.751111911113LSep 21 · 18:30M. Durda1.157550J. Przewlocki5.001111113WSep 21 · 17:20M. Durda1.07411611123K. Marchlewski7.75119119102
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