TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Kacper Marchlewski vs Jaroslaw Rolak 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Kacper Marchlewski
Home
1.88
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9118111210611––
Jaroslaw Rolak
Away
1.82
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:24 and never touched — 55.0% is still 55.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslaw Rolak to win
55.0%
55.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
78 points played in total.
Set by set
9118111210611––
H2H Kacper Marchlewski 14–20 Jaroslaw Rolak Kacper Marchlewski has won 14 of their 34 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:24What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.82 (51%)
Rolak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-20 in 34
Rolak
Correct
gap of 6 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marchlewski 1308 vs Rolak 1253
Marchlewski
Wrong
both rated, 54 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marchlewski 100% vs Rolak 40%
Marchlewski
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marchlewski 80% vs Rolak 50%
Marchlewski
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marchlewski +6 · Rolak +1
Marchlewski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Marchlewski) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rolak form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarchlewski 1.88 / Rolak 1.82
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Marchlewski)+4.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13169826
Marchlewski1.88
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 46 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back15% 10 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 36
Rolak1.82
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 20)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite49% won 135 of 274
Up 2–0, closes it86% 63 of 73
Up 1–0, closes it71% 107 of 150
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarchlewski3wins
AwayRolak7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderRolak leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarchlewski75%3 of 4
AwayRolak100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marchlewski4Rolak6n = 10Rolak took 6 of 10
S2Marchlewski3Rolak7n = 10Rolak took 7 of 10
S3Marchlewski4Rolak6n = 10Rolak took 6 of 10
S4Marchlewski3Rolak4n = 7Rolak took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarchlewskiRolakM − RBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.939.5−6.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarchlewskiRolakBasisWin rate · lifetime150 / 341 vs 648 / 143544%45.2%150 / 341 vs 648 / 1435Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.839.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarchlewskiMarchlewski 1.88/Rolak 1.82
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Marchlewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Rolak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 13:55K. Marchlewski2394100J. Rolak341111123
WSep 1 · 21:05K. Marchlewski42124311123J. Rolak481011116102
LSep 1 · 19:20K. Marchlewski2715660J. Rolak391711113
LAug 29 · 09:25K. Marchlewski26531171J. Rolak3811115113
LAug 29 · 06:05K. Marchlewski26511911J. Rolak4211911113
LAug 6 · 23:20K. Marchlewski401212791J. Rolak46141011113
WAug 6 · 20:30K. Marchlewski371111153J. Rolak2236130
LJul 28 · 21:05K. Marchlewski29125481J. Rolak43101111113
LJul 28 · 19:20K. Marchlewski3737111152J. Rolak49111188113
WMar 22 · 02:00K. Marchlewski4211812113J. Rolak346111071
K. Marchlewski10
WSep 22 · 16:20W. Gluszek1.85136100K. Marchlewski1.851511123WSep 22 · 24:10A. Myszewski1.9021111692K. Marchlewski1.75117811113WSep 21 · 23:45K. Marchlewski—1111113M. Durda—7550WSep 21 · 22:55K. Marchlewski1.78911119113J. Przewlocki1.9311731192WSep 21 · 21:05K. Marchlewski2.101111113M. Kowalczyk1.656880WSep 21 · 20:05J. Przewlocki1.5010470K. Marchlewski2.401211113WSep 21 · 19:20M. Kowalczyk1.619870K. Marchlewski2.151111113LSep 21 · 17:20M. Durda1.07411611123K. Marchlewski7.75119119102WSep 21 · 16:35P. Strus1.8013513732K. Marchlewski1.9111111111113LSep 21 · 15:00A. Myszewski1.551171013113K. Marchlewski2.25411121192
J. Rolak10
WSep 20 · 07:40M. Skorski1.8071240J. Rolak1.901114113LSep 20 · 06:55M. Sinicki1.8314711143J. Rolak1.8712116121LSep 20 · 06:05J. Rolak1.905131110102D. Poloszczanski1.761111712123WSep 20 · 04:30J. Rolak3.9011119113J. Pruszkowski1.20771181LSep 20 · 03:50B. Wisniewski1.851111143J. Rolak1.8088120WSep 19 · 13:55J. Rolak1.801111113W. Suchecki1.866350WSep 19 · 12:40J. Rolak1.8011911153D. Poloszczanski1.904119131WSep 19 · 11:25J. Rolak1.901211163A. Szoltysek1.75107140LSep 19 · 10:10M. Durda1.06116711123J. Rolak5.96811119102LSep 19 · 09:25J. Rolak1.85811891M. Zwolinski1.8511911113
Upcoming Matches
K. Marchlewski
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J. Rolak
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