TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Kindl vs Radek Benes 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Tomas Kindl
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
115119811911119
Radek Benes
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:19 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadek Benes to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Kindl above · Radek Benes below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 95 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Radek Benes at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Kindl 14–15 Radek Benes Tomas Kindl has won 14 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:19What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Benes
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-15 in 29
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kindl 1540 vs Benes 1573
Benes
Wrong
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kindl 40% vs Benes 60%
Benes
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kindl 30% vs Benes 50%
Benes
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kindl +1 · Benes -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Benes)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kindl form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKindl 1.91 / Benes 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Benes)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13173240
Kindl1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 49 of 115
Down 0–1, comes back24% 14 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 25
Benes1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 172 of 304
Up 2–0, closes it94% 73 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it76% 117 of 154
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKindl4wins
AwayBenes6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderBenes leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKindl60%3 of 5
AwayBenes80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kindl5Benes5n = 10split evenly
S2Kindl7Benes3n = 10Kindl took 7 of 10
S3Kindl6Benes4n = 10Kindl took 6 of 10
S4Kindl3Benes5n = 8Benes took 5 of 8
S5Kindl1Benes4n = 5Benes took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKindlBenesK − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.341.4−0.1per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKindlBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime217 / 435 vs 505 / 97449.9%51.9%217 / 435 vs 505 / 974Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match41.438.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BenesKindl 1.91/Benes 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kindl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 21 · 11:15T. Kindl4381141192R. Benes50119118113
LSep 17 · 07:15T. Kindl4111116762R. Benes45841111113
WSep 14 · 12:15T. Kindl351111133R. Benes2458110
WSep 7 · 10:40T. Kindl331111113R. Benes228950
LAug 26 · 16:10T. Kindl29491151R. Benes4111118113
WAug 5 · 08:44T. Kindl48111196113R. Benes4093111162
LAug 5 · 06:10T. Kindl4014106101R. Benes47121211123
WAug 3 · 10:45T. Kindl46101111143R. Benes401297121
LAug 1 · 13:40T. Kindl49912111072R. Benes521110812113
LJul 20 · 09:08T. Kindl49711111192R. Benes53111399113
T. Kindl10
WSep 22 · 05:45T. Krenek1.6711781182T. Kindl2.10511119113LSep 21 · 12:50T. Kindl1.508151091M. Moravec2.50111312113WSep 21 · 12:15M. Moravec2.00811811112T. Kindl1.73115118133LSep 21 · 11:15T. Kindl1.9181141192R. Benes1.80119118113LSep 21 · 09:45T. Krenek1.83116115113T. Kindl1.8321151192LSep 18 · 08:44T. Kindl1.8361181152E. Precek1.83115116113WSep 18 · 07:40T. Kindl1.91138911113E. Precek1.80111111672LSep 18 · 06:40T. Kindl2.00112111172R. Sedlacek1.73611137113LSep 18 · 05:40T. Kindl1.83714891L. Kantor1.83111211113LSep 17 · 08:45D. Jr1.83513711113T. Kindl1.83111111472
R. Benes10
LSep 22 · 06:15R. Benes1.9111691192M. Moravec1.80711116113WSep 21 · 13:19T. Krenek1.8387100R. Benes1.831111123LSep 21 · 11:45T. Krenek1.831213113R. Benes1.83101160WSep 21 · 11:15T. Kindl1.9181141192R. Benes1.80119118113WSep 21 · 10:15R. Benes2.009101111123M. Moravec1.73111296102LSep 21 · 09:19R. Benes2.0011116101T. Krenek1.7313911123WSep 21 · 08:15I. Heuman2.10119861R. Benes1.6751111113LSep 21 · 07:15R. Benes1.807890D. Pawlik1.911111113WSep 21 · 05:45T. Krenek1.80117991R. Benes1.9171111113LSep 19 · 13:15F. Chaloupka1.6081111113R. Benes2.07117881
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