TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Dominik Stefek vs Radek Zajac 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711811117119911
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:13 and never touched: 56.4% is still 56.4%
Graded at full timeDominik Stefek to win
56.4%
56.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDominik Stefek above · Radek Zajac below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 95 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Dominik Stefek at 56.4%
95 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Stefek 2–0 Radek Zajac Radek Zajac has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Stefek beat Zajac 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:13What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Stefek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Stefek 1397 vs Zajac 1285
Stefek
Wrong
both rated, 112 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stefek 60% vs Zajac 40%
Stefek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stefek 70% vs Zajac 50%
Stefek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stefek +3 · Zajac +1
Stefek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Stefek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStefek 1.50 / Zajac 2.50
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Stefek)-6.1pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13215563
Stefek1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite46% won 18 of 39
Up 2–0, closes it89% 8 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it59% 13 of 22
Zajac2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog35% won 10 of 29
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 11
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeStefek2wins
AwayZajac0wins
Stefek leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home2
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricStefekZajacS − ZBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match40.033.0+7.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStefekZajacBasisWin rate · lifetime51 / 103 vs 15 / 4349.5%34.9%51 / 103 vs 15 / 43Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.236.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StefekStefek 1.50/Zajac 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.4%
Stefek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Zajac won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 29 · 07:15D. Stefek4111811113R. Zajac33811591
WAug 20 · 16:10D. Stefek3912115113R. Zajac331061161
D. Stefek10
WSep 29 · 07:45J. Matus1.678116121D. Stefek2.1011811143WSep 29 · 07:15R. Zajac2.25811591D. Stefek1.5711811113WSep 29 · 06:15D. Stefek1.5061111113M. Sobota2.50119681LSep 13 · 09:15D. Stefek1.80714101392J. Sindler1.9111121211113LSep 13 · 08:15D. Stefek1.5712740R. Jancak2.251411113WSep 13 · 06:45T. Ogrocki2.5011451192D. Stefek1.50311119113WSep 13 · 06:15J. Sindler1.9110550D. Stefek1.801211113WSep 11 · 09:20D. Stefek1.831111113J. Sindler1.839580LSep 11 · 07:45D. Stefek1.671310155102P. Sturma2.1011121311123WSep 11 · 06:45D. Stefek1.83124114113J. Sindler1.83101181182
R. Zajac10
WSep 29 · 08:15M. Sobota1.919860R. Zajac1.801111113LSep 29 · 07:15R. Zajac2.25811591D. Stefek1.5711811113LSep 29 · 05:45J. Matus1.83111189113R. Zajac1.8386111122LSep 16 · 09:20J. Sindler1.36101111113R. Zajac3.00124971WSep 16 · 08:15L. Snr1.5793111182R. Zajac2.25111199113LSep 16 · 07:15R. Zajac2.631147121J. Sindler1.4491111143WSep 16 · 05:45L. Zustina1.6710770R. Zajac2.101211113WSep 10 · 09:10F. Mandrysz1.259770R. Zajac3.751111113LSep 10 · 08:10F. Mandrysz1.3061111113R. Zajac3.40118641WSep 10 · 07:10R. Zajac2.501112113T. Slivka1.5071090
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