TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mariusz Koczyba vs Grzegorz Marud 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 23Finished
Mariusz Koczyba
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
9111416711––––
Grzegorz Marud
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:23 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMariusz Koczyba to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMariusz Koczyba above · Grzegorz Marud below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 14-16
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 68 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Mariusz Koczyba at 54.0%
68 points played in total.
H2H Mariusz Koczyba 53–20 Grzegorz Marud Grzegorz Marud has won 20 of their 73 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Koczyba beat Marud 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:23What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Koczyba
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
53-20 in 73
Koczyba
Wrong
gap of 33 in 73, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koczyba 1390 vs Marud 1388
Koczyba
Wrong
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koczyba 20% vs Marud 60%
Marud
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koczyba 50% vs Marud 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Koczyba -2 · Marud -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Koczyba) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koczyba form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoczyba 1.73 / Marud 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Koczyba)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13176997
Koczyba1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest33%takes the first set · 3 of 9
As favourite66% won 318 of 484
Up 2–0, closes it94% 165 of 176
Up 1–0, closes it80% 224 of 280
Marud2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
67%takes the first set · 6 of 9
As underdog41% won 133 of 322
Down 0–1, comes back23% 40 of 173
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 104
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKoczyba8wins
AwayMarud2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKoczyba leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoczyba80%4 of 5
AwayMarud25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koczyba5Marud4n = 9Koczyba took 5 of 9
S2Koczyba8Marud1n = 9Koczyba took 8 of 9
S3Koczyba7Marud2n = 9Koczyba took 7 of 9
S4Koczyba3Marud2n = 5Koczyba took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKoczybaMarudK − MBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match32.829.2+3.6per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoczybaMarudBasisWin rate · lifetime858 / 1319 vs 658 / 137865.1%47.8%858 / 1319 vs 658 / 1378Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoczybaKoczyba 1.73/Marud 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.3%
Koczyba · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Marud won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 16 · 01:45M. Koczyba3951111123G. Marud371188101
WSep 15 · 16:15M. Koczyba3851111113G. Marud27118351
LSep 9 · 01:45M. Koczyba23143151G. Marud45121111113
LSep 8 · 16:15M. Koczyba20411411G. Marud3811511113
WAug 4 · 16:15M. Koczyba331111113G. Marud219750
WJul 28 · 19:10M. Koczyba331111113G. Marud166640
WJul 14 · 19:10M. Koczyba331111113G. Marud176740
WJul 7 · 19:10M. Koczyba4331611133G. Marud4211146111
WJun 30 · 19:10M. Koczyba331111113G. Marud208390
M. Koczyba10
LSep 23 · 24:35M. Koczyba1.4019100G. Jurowicz2.751111123LSep 22 · 23:20M. Koczyba1.577640M. Adamus2.251111113WSep 22 · 22:10J. Nowak2.7591211612M. Koczyba1.401110611113LSep 22 · 21:20M. Koczyba1.7366111152L. Oracz2.00111187113LSep 22 · 20:05M. Koczyba1.677811111M. Adamus2.1011111133WSep 22 · 18:30G. Jurowicz2.386770M. Koczyba1.531111113WSep 22 · 17:45G. Marud2.102M. Koczyba1.673LSep 22 · 16:55M. Koczyba1.807911161L. Oracz1.9111119183WSep 22 · 15:50M. Koczyba1.4411711113J. Nowak2.63611481WSep 18 · 02:00M. Koczyba1.4571111113G. Jurowicz2.50116691
G. Marud10
LSep 23 · 01:00J. Nowak2.209111112113G. Marud1.6111881492WSep 23 · 24:10G. Marud1.831111113L. Oracz1.834640WSep 22 · 22:35G. Marud2.001111113M. Adamus1.733980WSep 22 · 21:45G. Jurowicz2.504380G. Marud1.501111113LSep 22 · 20:30G. Marud1.9179111172L. Oracz1.80111193113WSep 22 · 18:55G. Marud1.73111112113J. Nowak2.00871421LSep 22 · 17:45G. Marud2.102M. Koczyba1.673LSep 22 · 16:15G. Marud1.408980G. Jurowicz2.751111113WSep 22 · 15:00G. Marud1.80121211113M. Adamus1.9110101361WSep 22 · 05:05G. Marud1.57871111113P. Slosarczyk2.2011119972
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.