TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jakub Nowak vs Mariusz Koczyba 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Jakub Nowak
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
9111210116611111
Mariusz Koczyba
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:03 and never touched — 70.8% is still 70.8%
Graded at full timeMariusz Koczyba to win
70.8%
70.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Nowak above · Mariusz Koczyba below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 1-11
Point 88 set 5, 1-11 — our read held Mariusz Koczyba at 70.8%
88 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Nowak 5–54 Mariusz Koczyba Jakub Nowak has won 5 of their 59 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Koczyba beat Nowak 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:03What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Koczyba
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-54 in 59
Koczyba
Correct
gap of 49 in 59, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nowak 1252 vs Koczyba 1436
Koczyba
Correct
both rated, 184 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nowak 40% vs Koczyba 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nowak 40% vs Koczyba 60%
Koczyba
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nowak -1 · Koczyba -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Koczyba) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koczyba form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNowak 2.75 / Koczyba 1.40
Signal prob.27% / 73%
Edge (Koczyba)+6.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13176684
Nowak2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
56%takes the first set · 5 of 9
As underdog36% won 240 of 660
Down 0–1, comes back22% 85 of 396
Down 0–2, comes back9% 20 of 230
Koczyba1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest56%takes the first set · 5 of 9
As favourite66% won 318 of 484
Up 2–0, closes it94% 165 of 176
Up 1–0, closes it80% 224 of 280
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNowak2wins
AwayKoczyba8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKoczyba leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNowakn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKoczyba100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nowak2Koczyba8n = 10Koczyba took 8 of 10
S2Nowak4Koczyba6n = 10Koczyba took 6 of 10
S3Nowak1Koczyba9n = 10Koczyba took 9 of 10
S4Nowak1Koczyba3n = 4Koczyba took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away660%
These 10 meetings
MetricNowakKoczybaN − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match29.638.0−8.4per matchSweeps06−63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNowakKoczybaBasisWin rate · lifetime678 / 1753 vs 860 / 131938.7%65.2%678 / 1753 vs 860 / 1319Avg sets wonper match1.82.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoczybaNowak 2.75/Koczyba 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.6%
Koczyba · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Koczyba won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 22 · 15:50J. Nowak29611481M. Koczyba4011711113
WSep 8 · 21:20J. Nowak501111411133M. Koczyba47931113112
WSep 8 · 15:25J. Nowak47111114113M. Koczyba35881631
LAug 5 · 20:00J. Nowak471011111052M. Koczyba52129812113
LJul 26 · 03:35J. Nowak3391770M. Koczyba411119113
LJul 1 · 20:00J. Nowak146350M. Koczyba331111113
LJun 28 · 16:50J. Nowak227780M. Koczyba331111113
LJun 17 · 01:45J. Nowak177460M. Koczyba331111113
LJun 11 · 17:35J. Nowak175750M. Koczyba331111113
LJun 2 · 22:25J. Nowak205870M. Koczyba331111113
J. Nowak10
LSep 22 · 23:45J. Nowak2.258870G. Jurowicz1.571111113LSep 22 · 21:00J. Nowak2.0068100M. Adamus1.731111123WSep 22 · 19:40G. Jurowicz1.6191191192J. Nowak2.20119114113LSep 22 · 18:55G. Marud1.73111112113J. Nowak2.00871421LSep 22 · 18:10J. Nowak1.9110L. Oracz1.8063WSep 22 · 16:35J. Nowak1.731111107113M. Adamus2.0097121162LSep 22 · 15:50M. Koczyba1.4411711113J. Nowak2.63611481WSep 21 · 02:20O. Sokolowski1.805950J. Nowak1.901111113LSep 21 · 01:35S. Szostok1.511111143J. Nowak2.4089120WSep 20 · 23:35M. Sikon1.80615111182J. Nowak1.86111767113
M. Koczyba10
LSep 22 · 23:20M. Koczyba1.577640M. Adamus2.251111113LSep 22 · 21:20M. Koczyba1.7366111152L. Oracz2.00111187113LSep 22 · 20:05M. Koczyba1.677811111M. Adamus2.1011111133WSep 22 · 18:30G. Jurowicz2.386770M. Koczyba1.531111113WSep 22 · 17:45G. Marud2.102M. Koczyba1.673LSep 22 · 16:55M. Koczyba1.807911161L. Oracz1.9111119183WSep 22 · 15:50M. Koczyba1.4411711113J. Nowak2.63611481WSep 18 · 02:00M. Koczyba1.4571111113G. Jurowicz2.50116691LSep 18 · 24:45M. Koczyba1.52111197102M. Adamus2.30981111123WSep 17 · 23:35M. Koczyba1.8511411113M. Tkocz1.85711981
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