TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mariusz Koczyba vs Mariusz Adamus 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Mariusz Koczyba
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711611411––––
Mariusz Adamus
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:15 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeMariusz Koczyba to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMariusz Koczyba above · Mariusz Adamus below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 50 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Mariusz Koczyba at 57.0%
50 points played in total.
H2H Mariusz Koczyba 37–28 Mariusz Adamus Mariusz Adamus has won 28 of their 65 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Adamus beat Koczyba 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:15What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Koczyba
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
37-28 in 65
Koczyba
Wrong
gap of 9 in 65, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koczyba 1442 vs Adamus 1342
Koczyba
Wrong
both rated, 99 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koczyba 60% vs Adamus 80%
Adamus
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koczyba 60% vs Adamus 40%
Koczyba
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Koczyba +1 · Adamus -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Koczyba) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamus form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoczyba 1.57 / Adamus 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Koczyba)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13177226
Koczyba1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
56%takes the first set · 5 of 9
As favourite66% won 318 of 484
Up 2–0, closes it94% 165 of 176
Up 1–0, closes it80% 224 of 280
Adamus2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 176 of 414
Down 0–1, comes back21% 46 of 215
Down 0–2, comes back9% 10 of 118
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKoczyba4wins
AwayAdamus6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderAdamus leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoczyba40%2 of 5
AwayAdamus60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koczyba5Adamus5n = 10split evenly
S2Koczyba6Adamus4n = 10Koczyba took 6 of 10
S3Koczyba4Adamus6n = 10Adamus took 6 of 10
S4Koczyba2Adamus7n = 9Adamus took 7 of 9
S5Koczyba2Adamus2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKoczybaAdamusK − ABasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.643.2−2.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoczybaAdamusBasisWin rate · lifetime860 / 1319 vs 799 / 163065.2%49%860 / 1319 vs 799 / 1630Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.239.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoczybaKoczyba 1.57/Adamus 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.1%
Koczyba · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 22 · 20:05M. Koczyba377811111M. Adamus3611111133
LSep 18 · 24:45M. Koczyba48111197102M. Adamus51981111123
LSep 16 · 15:35M. Koczyba29118641M. Adamus4071111113
LAug 23 · 08:00M. Koczyba43121146102M. Adamus461021111123
WAug 20 · 18:45M. Koczyba43111110113M. Adamus31571271
LAug 13 · 24:45M. Koczyba3851110121M. Adamus4611912143
WAug 7 · 18:30M. Koczyba4291111113M. Adamus32117861
WAug 2 · 08:20M. Koczyba53316117163M. Adamus581114811142
WJul 8 · 18:45M. Koczyba581110148153M. Adamus568121211132
LJun 25 · 02:00M. Koczyba1512120M. Adamus361111143
M. Koczyba10
WSep 22 · 22:10J. Nowak2.7591211612M. Koczyba1.401110611113LSep 22 · 21:20M. Koczyba1.7366111152L. Oracz2.00111187113LSep 22 · 20:05M. Koczyba1.677811111M. Adamus2.1011111133WSep 22 · 18:30G. Jurowicz2.386770M. Koczyba1.531111113WSep 22 · 17:45G. Marud2.102M. Koczyba1.673LSep 22 · 16:55M. Koczyba1.807911161L. Oracz1.9111119183WSep 22 · 15:50M. Koczyba1.4411711113J. Nowak2.63611481WSep 18 · 02:00M. Koczyba1.4571111113G. Jurowicz2.50116691LSep 18 · 24:45M. Koczyba1.52111197102M. Adamus2.30981111123WSep 17 · 23:35M. Koczyba1.8511411113M. Tkocz1.85711981
M. Adamus10
LSep 22 · 22:35G. Marud2.001111113M. Adamus1.733980WSep 22 · 21:00J. Nowak2.0068100M. Adamus1.731111123WSep 22 · 20:05M. Koczyba1.677811111M. Adamus2.1011111133WSep 22 · 19:20L. Oracz1.73137611132M. Adamus2.001111115153WSep 22 · 17:20G. Jurowicz2.2010960M. Adamus1.611211113LSep 22 · 16:35J. Nowak1.731111107113M. Adamus2.0097121162LSep 22 · 15:00G. Marud1.80121211113M. Adamus1.9110101361LSep 20 · 08:00K. Juszczyk1.801610119123M. Adamus1.801412811102LSep 20 · 07:10W. Urban1.8311911113M. Adamus1.83911881WSep 18 · 24:45M. Koczyba1.52111197102M. Adamus2.30981111123
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