TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jakub Nowak vs Grzegorz Marud 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 23Finished
Jakub Nowak
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111181181214119
Grzegorz Marud
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:53 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Marud to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Nowak above · Grzegorz Marud below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 12-14
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 104 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Grzegorz Marud at 57.7%
104 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Nowak 36–74 Grzegorz Marud Jakub Nowak has won 36 of their 110 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Marud beat Nowak 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:53What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Marud
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
36-74 in 110
Marud
Wrong
gap of 38 in 110, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nowak 1250 vs Marud 1388
Marud
Wrong
both rated, 138 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nowak 20% vs Marud 80%
Marud
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nowak 30% vs Marud 60%
Marud
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nowak -3 · Marud +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Marud) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marud form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNowak 2.20 / Marud 1.61
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Marud)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13177148
Nowak2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest33%takes the first set · 3 of 9
As underdog36% won 240 of 660
Down 0–1, comes back22% 85 of 396
Down 0–2, comes back9% 20 of 230
Marud1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest67%takes the first set · 6 of 9
As favourite55% won 133 of 244
Up 2–0, closes it87% 80 of 92
Up 1–0, closes it70% 107 of 152
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNowak3wins
AwayMarud7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMarud leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNowakn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayMarud77.8%7 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nowak1Marud9n = 10Marud took 9 of 10
S2Nowak4Marud6n = 10Marud took 6 of 10
S3Nowak4Marud6n = 10Marud took 6 of 10
S4Nowak2Marud3n = 5Marud took 3 of 5
S5Nowak2Marud1n = 3Nowak took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricNowakMarudN − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match33.140.0−6.9per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNowakMarudBasisWin rate · lifetime679 / 1756 vs 658 / 137838.7%47.8%679 / 1756 vs 658 / 1378Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarudNowak 2.20/Marud 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.7%
Marud · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Nowak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 23 · 01:00J. Nowak549111112113G. Marud5011881492
LSep 22 · 18:55J. Nowak31871421G. Marud45111112113
LSep 14 · 01:30J. Nowak163940G. Marud331111113
LSep 13 · 19:30J. Nowak4261181162G. Marud49119117113
LSep 9 · 24:10J. Nowak204880G. Marud331111113
LSep 8 · 20:30J. Nowak228950G. Marud331111113
WSep 8 · 03:05J. Nowak381211153G. Marud31108130
LSep 7 · 21:05J. Nowak2231180G. Marud351113113
LAug 31 · 23:30J. Nowak361112671G. Marud45131011113
WAug 31 · 19:10J. Nowak50691111133G. Marud46111158112
J. Nowak10
LSep 22 · 23:45J. Nowak2.258870G. Jurowicz1.571111113LSep 22 · 22:10J. Nowak2.7591211612M. Koczyba1.401110611113LSep 22 · 21:00J. Nowak2.0068100M. Adamus1.731111123WSep 22 · 19:40G. Jurowicz1.6191191192J. Nowak2.20119114113LSep 22 · 18:55G. Marud1.73111112113J. Nowak2.00871421LSep 22 · 18:10J. Nowak1.9110L. Oracz1.8063WSep 22 · 16:35J. Nowak1.731111107113M. Adamus2.0097121162LSep 22 · 15:50M. Koczyba1.4411711113J. Nowak2.63611481WSep 21 · 02:20O. Sokolowski1.805950J. Nowak1.901111113LSep 21 · 01:35S. Szostok1.511111143J. Nowak2.4089120
G. Marud10
WSep 23 · 01:45M. Koczyba1.7391470G. Marud2.001116113WSep 23 · 24:10G. Marud1.831111113L. Oracz1.834640WSep 22 · 22:35G. Marud2.001111113M. Adamus1.733980WSep 22 · 21:45G. Jurowicz2.504380G. Marud1.501111113LSep 22 · 20:30G. Marud1.9179111172L. Oracz1.80111193113WSep 22 · 18:55G. Marud1.73111112113J. Nowak2.00871421LSep 22 · 17:45G. Marud2.102M. Koczyba1.673LSep 22 · 16:15G. Marud1.408980G. Jurowicz2.751111113WSep 22 · 15:00G. Marud1.80121211113M. Adamus1.9110101361WSep 22 · 05:05G. Marud1.57871111113P. Slosarczyk2.2011119972
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