TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Antonin Skyba vs Patrik Muller 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Antonin Skyba
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1210711115911118
Patrik Muller
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:20 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAntonin Skyba to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAntonin Skyba above · Patrik Muller below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 95 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Antonin Skyba at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Antonin Skyba 10–5 Patrik Muller Patrik Muller has won 5 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:20What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Muller
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-5 in 15
Skyba
Correct
gap of 5 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skyba 1199 vs Muller 1196
Skyba
Correct
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skyba 0% vs Muller 40%
Muller
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skyba 30% vs Muller 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skyba -5 · Muller +1
Skyba
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skyba)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Muller form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkyba 1.83 / Muller 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Skyba)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13172726
Skyba1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
Muller1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkyba6wins
AwayMuller4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSkyba leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkyba60%3 of 5
AwayMuller40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skyba5Muller5n = 10split evenly
S2Skyba6Muller4n = 10Skyba took 6 of 10
S3Skyba4Muller6n = 10Muller took 6 of 10
S4Skyba4Muller4n = 8split evenly
S5Skyba3Muller2n = 5Skyba took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkybaMullerS − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.342.9−0.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkybaMullerBasisWin rate · lifetime99 / 242 vs 72 / 16240.9%44.4%99 / 242 vs 72 / 162Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkybaSkyba 1.83/Muller 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Skyba · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Skyba won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 22 · 07:30A. Skyba50127119113P. Muller45101151182
LSep 21 · 07:30A. Skyba47116911102P. Muller48711117123
LSep 10 · 10:00A. Skyba29811731P. Muller4211911113
WApr 13 · 12:29A. Skyba50912117113P. Muller46111081162
WApr 13 · 10:00A. Skyba4511158113P. Muller419131181
WApr 6 · 12:29A. Skyba511011118113P. Muller4412581182
LApr 6 · 11:30A. Skyba217680P. Muller331111113
WFeb 16 · 13:32A. Skyba4211119113P. Muller34951191
LFeb 16 · 12:00A. Skyba46111071262P. Muller539121110113
A. Skyba10
LSep 22 · 06:30A. Skyba1.5711101171J. Vrnak2.2571213113LSep 22 · 05:30A. Skyba1.501188111A. Akopyan2.5091111133LSep 21 · 08:28M. Holub1.338111111113A. Skyba3.2511913562LSep 21 · 07:30P. Muller1.91711117123A. Skyba1.80116911102LSep 21 · 07:00A. Skyba3.4011751142M. Holub1.30611118113WSep 21 · 06:00A. Skyba2.251115113L. Krutina1.5751390LSep 16 · 16:33P. Fiser1.3391118113A. Skyba3.251171681LSep 16 · 15:30A. Skyba2.63841191P. Fiser1.4411119113WSep 16 · 14:30A. Skyba1.831111113V. Coubal1.836390WSep 16 · 13:30A. Skyba1.5711412113A. Akopyan2.258111051
P. Muller10
WSep 22 · 07:00P. Muller1.671071211143A. Akopyan2.101211107122LSep 22 · 06:00P. Muller1.575740J. Vrnak2.251111113LSep 21 · 08:58L. Krutina1.36119117113P. Muller3.0051161142WSep 21 · 07:30P. Muller1.91711117123A. Skyba1.80116911102LSep 21 · 06:30P. Muller2.75491281L. Krutina1.40111110113WSep 21 · 05:30P. Muller3.00911711133M. Holub1.36118115112LSep 18 · 08:44P. Muller1.4411118362J. Vrnak2.63851111113LSep 18 · 08:00P. Muller2.6313118932D. Sabuka1.441181111113LSep 18 · 06:30M. Holub1.4091111123P. Muller2.751174101WSep 18 · 06:00J. Vrnak2.751151011102P. Muller1.40911124123
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