Pawel Polok vs Kacper Slawinski 3-2

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite SeriesOSP 1 · Czestochowa

Played Oct 12Finished

Pawel Polok

Home

2.20

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 1

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

1161189116111412

Kacper Slawinski

Away

1.62

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:37 and never touched: 60.9% is still 60.9%

Graded at full time

Kacper Slawinski to win

60.9%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingPawel Polok above · Kacper Slawinski below

Set 1 · 11-6

Set 2 · 11-8

Set 3 · 9-11

Set 4 · 6-11

Set 5 · 14-12

Point 99 set 5, 14-12 · our read held Kacper Slawinski at 60.9%

99 points played in total.

H2H Pawel Polok 5–5 Kacper Slawinski Dead even across their 10 meetings.

Last 10 · 5–5Head to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Slawinski

Polok 2.20/Slawinski 1.61

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

60.9%

Slawinski · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Polok won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 12:37

60.9%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615

short by 1.0pp

61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)

What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.61 (58%)

Slawinski

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

5-5 in 10

—

Too close

gap of 0, under the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Polok 1404 vs Slawinski 1497

Slawinski

Wrong

both rated, 94 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Polok 40% vs Slawinski 60%

Slawinski

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Polok 50% vs Slawinski 70%

Slawinski

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Polok +1 · Slawinski +1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Slawinski) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Market vs Signals

Market oddsPolok 2.20 / Slawinski 1.615

Signal prob.39% / 61%

Edge (Slawinski)-1.0pp (anti-value)

Same-day rematch · 6h before this match

Slawinski beat Polok 3-0.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomePolok5wins

AwaySlawinski5wins

4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomePolok60%3 of 5

AwaySlawinski60%3 of 5

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Polok5Slawinski5n = 10split evenly

S2Polok6Slawinski4n = 10Polok took 6 of 10

S3Polok2Slawinski8n = 10Slawinski took 8 of 10

S4Polok3Slawinski4n = 7Slawinski took 4 of 7

S5Polok3Slawinski1n = 4Polok took 3 of 4

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home110%

3–1Four sets, home110%

3–2Decider, home330%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away220%

These 10 meetings

MetricPolokSlawinskiP − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.139.2−1.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricPolokSlawinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime195 / 314 vs 623 / 100062.1%62.3%195 / 314 vs 623 / 1000Avg sets wonper match2.22.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.9per match

TT Elite Series · #13279757

Polok2.20

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As underdog50% won 24 of 48

Down 0–1, comes back35% 8 of 23

Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8

Slawinski1.61

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite69% won 170 of 248

Up 2–0, closes it99% 80 of 81

Up 1–0, closes it81% 125 of 154

Pawel Polok vs Kacper Slawinski 3-2 · TT Elite Series

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Pawel Polok vs Kacper Slawinski 3-2 · TT Elite Series

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.