Pawel Polok vs Witold Buczynski 3-1

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite SeriesOSP 1 · Czestochowa

Played Oct 12Finished

Pawel Polok

Home

1.40

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 2

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

711114117115––

Witold Buczynski

Away

2.75

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:23 and never touched: 68.7% is still 68.7%

Graded at full time

Pawel Polok to win

68.7%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingPawel Polok above · Witold Buczynski below

Set 1 · 7-11

Set 2 · 11-4

Set 3 · 11-7

Set 4 · 11-5

Point 67 set 4, 11-5 · our read held Pawel Polok at 68.7%

67 points played in total.

H2H Pawel Polok 7–3 Witold Buczynski Witold Buczynski has won 3 of their 10 meetings.

Last 10 · 7–3Same sideHead to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Polok

Polok 1.40/Buczynski 2.75

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

68.7%

Polok · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Polok won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 09:23

68.7%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40

short by 2.7pp

71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)

What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.40 (66%)

Polok

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

7-3 in 10

Polok

Correct

gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Polok 1384 vs Buczynski 1284

Polok

Correct

both rated, 99 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Polok 40% vs Buczynski 40%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Polok 50% vs Buczynski 30%

Polok

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Polok -2 · Buczynski -1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Polok) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Polok: form 40%, the price implies 71%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsPolok 1.40 / Buczynski 2.75

Signal prob.69% / 31%

Edge (Polok)-2.7pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomePolok7wins

AwayBuczynski3wins

3 of 10 to a deciderPolok leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomePolok100%4 of 4

AwayBuczynski50%3 of 6

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Polok4Buczynski6n = 10Buczynski took 6 of 10

S2Polok7Buczynski3n = 10Polok took 7 of 10

S3Polok4Buczynski6n = 10Buczynski took 6 of 10

S4Polok5Buczynski3n = 8Polok took 5 of 8

S5Polok3Buczynski0n = 3Polok took 3 of 3

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home110%

3–1Four sets, home330%

3–2Decider, home330%

2–3Decider, away00%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricPolokBuczynskiP − BBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.736.1+4.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricPolokBuczynskiBasisWin rate · lifetime192 / 310 vs 471 / 118761.9%39.7%192 / 310 vs 471 / 1187Avg sets wonper match2.21.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.036.3per match

TT Elite Series · #13279730

Polok1.40

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

20%takes the first set · 2 of 10

As favourite64% won 139 of 216

Up 2–0, closes it95% 81 of 85

Up 1–0, closes it84% 114 of 136

Buczynski2.75

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As underdog38% won 195 of 514

Down 0–1, comes back21% 64 of 303

Down 0–2, comes back4% 6 of 166

Pawel Polok vs Witold Buczynski 3-1 · TT Elite Series

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Pawel Polok vs Witold Buczynski 3-1 · TT Elite Series

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.