TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Pawel Polok vs Zbigniew Sobkow 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesOSP 1 · Czestochowa
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
6111179111151412
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:00 and never touched: 67.3% is still 67.3%
Graded at full timePawel Polok to win
67.3%
67.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPawel Polok above · Zbigniew Sobkow below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 14-12
Point 97 set 5, 14-12 · our read held Pawel Polok at 67.3%
97 points played in total.
H2H Pawel Polok 2–1 Zbigniew Sobkow Zbigniew Sobkow has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Sobkow beat Polok 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:0067.3%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 2.0pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Polok
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polok 1406 vs Sobkow 1239
Polok
Correct
both rated, 167 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polok 40% vs Sobkow 20%
Polok
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polok 40% vs Sobkow 10%
Polok
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Polok -1 · Sobkow -4
Sobkow
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% · Clear lean (leans Polok) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sobkow form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolok 1.444 / Sobkow 2.625
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Polok)-2.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13275471
Polok1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite65% won 136 of 210
Up 2–0, closes it95% 80 of 84
Up 1–0, closes it84% 112 of 134
Sobkow2.63
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog30% won 21 of 71
Down 0–1, comes back17% 7 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomePolok2wins
AwaySobkow1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderPolok leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polok1Sobkow2n = 3Sobkow took 2 of 3
S2Polok2Sobkow1n = 3Polok took 2 of 3
S3Polok2Sobkow1n = 3Polok took 2 of 3
S4Polok1Sobkow2n = 3Sobkow took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricPolokSobkowP − SBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match42.339.7+2.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolokSobkowBasisWin rate · lifetime189 / 303 vs 73 / 16862.4%43.5%189 / 303 vs 73 / 168Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.036.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PolokPolok 1.44/Sobkow 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.3%
Polok · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Polok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LOct 11 · 06:55P. Polok35991161Z. Sobkow3811115113
WSep 27 · 13:05P. Polok47131112113Z. Sobkow391581061
WSep 27 · 06:55P. Polok45111166113Z. Sobkow4286111162
P. Polok10
LOct 11 · 11:50P. Polok2.00711351J. Wieczerzak1.7311811113WOct 11 · 10:10P. Polok2.252111111113M. Lach1.5711813772WOct 11 · 09:00P. Polok2.50121411113A. Cichocki1.501412981LOct 11 · 07:45M. Lach1.5313915113P. Polok2.3811111391LOct 11 · 06:55Z. Sobkow2.3811115113P. Polok1.53991161WOct 11 · 06:05P. Polok1.6111811113D. Swider2.20811551LOct 11 · 04:30P. Polok2.3813811972A. Cichocki1.531111711113WOct 11 · 03:50J. Wieczerzak1.8311147862P. Polok1.838121111113LOct 5 · 16:40R. Skotniczny1.7511119113P. Polok1.90471161LOct 5 · 15:55J. Kaczmarek1.3611139143P. Polok2.9181111121
Z. Sobkow10
LOct 11 · 12:15Z. Sobkow2.251110731D. Swider1.5471211113LOct 11 · 10:35Z. Sobkow3.0062111182A. Cichocki1.36111167113LOct 11 · 09:50J. Wieczerzak1.251111113Z. Sobkow3.759770LOct 11 · 08:35Z. Sobkow2.10981161D. Swider1.6711117113WOct 11 · 06:55Z. Sobkow2.3811115113P. Polok1.53991161LOct 11 · 05:40Z. Sobkow2.7512910J. Wieczerzak1.401411113LOct 11 · 04:10Z. Sobkow4.339470M. Lach1.201111113LOct 11 · 03:00Z. Sobkow2.7511811842A. Cichocki1.40311711113LOct 10 · 13:55M. Lach1.281111113Z. Sobkow3.506960LOct 10 · 13:05J. Wieczerzak1.301311113Z. Sobkow3.4011850
Upcoming Matches
P. Polok
Oct 11 · 14:40P. Polok1.80D. Swider1.91—Oct 12 · 03:25P. Polok1.50W. Buczynski2.50—Oct 12 · 05:15P. Polok1.83S. Szostok1.83—Oct 12 · 06:30P. Polok2.25K. Slawinski1.57—Oct 12 · 07:45P. Polok1.83J. Pruszkowski1.83—Oct 12 · 09:25P. Polok1.50W. Buczynski2.50—Oct 12 · 10:10P. Polok1.83J. Pruszkowski1.83—Oct 12 · 11:25P. Polok1.50J. Kaczmarek2.50—Oct 12 · 12:40P. Polok2.25K. Slawinski1.57—
Z. Sobkow
Nothing scheduled
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