TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Marcin Lach vs Pawel Polok 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesOSP 1 · Czestochowa
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
13119111513119––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:42 and never touched: 63.6% is still 63.6%
Graded at full timeMarcin Lach to win
63.6%
63.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMarcin Lach above · Pawel Polok below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 15-13
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 92 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Marcin Lach at 63.6%
92 points played in total.
H2H Marcin Lach 1–1 Pawel Polok Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:4263.6%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 1.6pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Lach
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Lach 1529 vs Polok 1394
Lach
Correct
both rated, 135 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lach 80% vs Polok 40%
Lach
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lach 90% vs Polok 30%
Lach
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lach +1 · Polok -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Lach) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lach form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLach 1.533 / Polok 2.375
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Lach)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13275714
Lach1.53
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite67% won 134 of 199
Up 2–0, closes it99% 81 of 82
Up 1–0, closes it82% 101 of 124
Polok2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog51% won 22 of 43
Down 0–1, comes back32% 6 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeLach1wins
AwayPolok1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricLachPolokL − PBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match37.034.5+2.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLachPolokBasisWin rate · lifetime169 / 269 vs 187 / 29962.8%62.5%169 / 269 vs 187 / 299Avg sets wonper match2.32.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LachLach 1.53/Polok 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.6%
Lach · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lach won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 26 · 13:05M. Lach31711671P. Polok3911611113
WSep 26 · 05:40M. Lach43111110113P. Polok30381271
M. Lach10
WOct 11 · 06:30M. Lach1.8318911113J. Wieczerzak1.831611681LOct 11 · 05:15M. Lach2.20117100A. Cichocki1.611311123WOct 11 · 04:10Z. Sobkow4.339470M. Lach1.201111113WOct 11 · 03:25M. Lach1.531111113D. Swider2.389770WOct 10 · 13:55M. Lach1.281111113Z. Sobkow3.506960WOct 10 · 12:40M. Lach1.141111113I. Szymanski5.003370WOct 10 · 11:25M. Lach1.83151114113W. Wojtaszczyk1.831391661WOct 10 · 10:10J. Wieczerzak1.837613111M. Lach1.83111111133WOct 10 · 09:25M. Lach1.6711119113S. Szostok2.10281161WOct 10 · 07:45M. Lach1.441111123G. Sawicki2.6378100
P. Polok10
LOct 11 · 06:55Z. Sobkow2.3811115113P. Polok1.53991161WOct 11 · 06:05P. Polok1.6111811113D. Swider2.20811551LOct 11 · 04:30P. Polok2.3813811972A. Cichocki1.531111711113WOct 11 · 03:50J. Wieczerzak1.8311147862P. Polok1.838121111113LOct 5 · 16:40R. Skotniczny1.7511119113P. Polok1.90471161LOct 5 · 15:55J. Kaczmarek1.3611139143P. Polok2.9181111121LOct 5 · 13:55Y. Fomin2.301111113P. Polok1.527860LOct 5 · 13:10G. Wichowski1.811111113P. Polok1.909470LOct 5 · 11:30J. Pelka1.6711911123P. Polok2.108119101WOct 5 · 10:40R. Skotniczny1.85119881P. Polok1.8571111113
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