TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Zbigniew Sobkow vs Pawel Polok 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesOSP 1 · Czestochowa
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 7
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119119511116––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:50 and never touched: 65.3% is still 65.3%
Graded at full timePawel Polok to win
65.3%
65.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Pawel Polok @ 1.50 · Lost
How it is goingZbigniew Sobkow above · Pawel Polok below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 73 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Pawel Polok at 65.3%
73 points played in total.
H2H Zbigniew Sobkow 1–2 Pawel Polok Zbigniew Sobkow has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pick
Sealed 06:50Sent to Pro: Pawel Polok @ 1.50 · Lost
65.3%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
clears by 0.1pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Polok
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sobkow 1268 vs Polok 1386
Polok
Wrong
both rated, 118 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobkow 0% vs Polok 40%
Polok
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobkow 10% vs Polok 40%
Polok
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobkow -7 · Polok +1
Sobkow
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Polok) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Polok form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobkow 2.375 / Polok 1.533
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Polok)+0.1pp
TT Elite Series · #13275698
Sobkow2.38
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 7
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog30% won 21 of 71
Down 0–1, comes back17% 7 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 22
Polok1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite65% won 136 of 210
Up 2–0, closes it95% 80 of 84
Up 1–0, closes it84% 112 of 134
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeSobkow1wins
AwayPolok2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderPolok leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sobkow2Polok1n = 3Sobkow took 2 of 3
S2Sobkow1Polok2n = 3Polok took 2 of 3
S3Sobkow1Polok2n = 3Polok took 2 of 3
S4Sobkow2Polok1n = 3Sobkow took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricSobkowPolokS − PBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match39.742.3−2.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobkowPolokBasisWin rate · lifetime73 / 164 vs 187 / 30044.5%62.3%73 / 164 vs 187 / 300Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PolokSobkow 2.38/Polok 1.53
Miss
What we said
65.3%
Polok · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Pawel Polok @ 1.50 · Lost
What happened
3–1
Sobkow won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WOct 11 · 06:55Z. Sobkow3811115113P. Polok35991161
LSep 27 · 13:05Z. Sobkow391581061P. Polok47131112113
LSep 27 · 06:55Z. Sobkow4286111162P. Polok45111166113
Z. Sobkow10
LOct 11 · 05:40Z. Sobkow2.7512910J. Wieczerzak1.401411113LOct 11 · 04:10Z. Sobkow4.339470M. Lach1.201111113LOct 11 · 03:00Z. Sobkow2.7511811842A. Cichocki1.40311711113LOct 10 · 13:55M. Lach1.281111113Z. Sobkow3.506960LOct 10 · 13:05J. Wieczerzak1.301311113Z. Sobkow3.4011850LOct 10 · 12:15Z. Sobkow2.50711841S. Szostok1.5011811113LOct 10 · 10:35Z. Sobkow2.50111151052W. Wojtaszczyk1.50861112113WOct 10 · 09:50I. Szymanski3.0011114942Z. Sobkow1.36781111113LOct 10 · 08:35Z. Sobkow2.639111031S. Szostok1.4411412113LOct 10 · 06:55Z. Sobkow1.44111012101G. Sawicki2.6381214123
P. Polok10
LOct 11 · 07:45M. Lach1.5313915113P. Polok2.3811111391WOct 11 · 06:05P. Polok1.6111811113D. Swider2.20811551LOct 11 · 04:30P. Polok2.3813811972A. Cichocki1.531111711113WOct 11 · 03:50J. Wieczerzak1.8311147862P. Polok1.838121111113LOct 5 · 16:40R. Skotniczny1.7511119113P. Polok1.90471161LOct 5 · 15:55J. Kaczmarek1.3611139143P. Polok2.9181111121LOct 5 · 13:55Y. Fomin2.301111113P. Polok1.527860LOct 5 · 13:10G. Wichowski1.811111113P. Polok1.909470LOct 5 · 11:30J. Pelka1.6711911123P. Polok2.108119101WOct 5 · 10:40R. Skotniczny1.85119881P. Polok1.8571111113
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