TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Zbigniew Sobkow vs Sebastian Szostok 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesOSP 1 · Czestochowa
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111141012311––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:27 and never touched: 67.7% is still 67.7%
Graded at full timeSebastian Szostok to win
67.7%
67.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingZbigniew Sobkow above · Sebastian Szostok below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 71 set 4, 3-11 · our read held Sebastian Szostok at 67.7%
71 points played in total.
H2H Zbigniew Sobkow 4–5 Sebastian Szostok Zbigniew Sobkow has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:2767.7%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 1.6pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Szostok
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sobkow 1297 vs Szostok 1403
Szostok
Correct
both rated, 106 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobkow 40% vs Szostok 60%
Szostok
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobkow 30% vs Szostok 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobkow -3 · Szostok -1
Sobkow
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% · Clear lean (leans Szostok) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobkow 2.625 / Szostok 1.444
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Szostok)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13268792
Sobkow2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 21 of 63
Down 0–1, comes back20% 7 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 18
Szostok1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 328 of 507
Up 2–0, closes it96% 129 of 135
Up 1–0, closes it80% 212 of 265
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeSobkow4wins
AwaySzostok5wins
3 of 9 to a deciderSzostok leads 5–4, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSobkown = 1, below the 3 needed
AwaySzostok50%4 of 8
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sobkow1Szostok8n = 9Szostok took 8 of 9
S2Sobkow5Szostok4n = 9Sobkow took 5 of 9
S3Sobkow3Szostok6n = 9Szostok took 6 of 9
S4Sobkow4Szostok2n = 6Sobkow took 4 of 6
S5Sobkow2Szostok1n = 3Sobkow took 2 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away333%
These 9 meetings
MetricSobkowSzostokSobkow − SzostokBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set18−7of 9Avg pointsper match35.438.4−3.0per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobkowSzostokBasisWin rate · lifetime71 / 154 vs 891 / 154546.1%57.7%71 / 154 vs 891 / 1545Avg sets wonper match2.02.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.440.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SzostokSobkow 2.63/Szostok 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.7%
Szostok · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Szostok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 27 · 12:15Z. Sobkow47131112113S. Szostok381551081
LSep 27 · 08:35Z. Sobkow216960S. Szostok331111113
LSep 26 · 12:45Z. Sobkow147520S. Szostok331111113
LSep 26 · 10:20Z. Sobkow4411951182S. Szostok44511116113
WSep 13 · 13:05Z. Sobkow52611311213S. Szostok56117118192
WSep 13 · 06:55Z. Sobkow4291111113S. Szostok29116751
LSep 5 · 10:10Z. Sobkow25511631S. Szostok3911611113
WAug 23 · 09:00Z. Sobkow48711118113S. Szostok4111861152
LAug 23 · 04:30Z. Sobkow269890S. Szostok331111113
Z. Sobkow10
LOct 10 · 06:55Z. Sobkow1.44111012101G. Sawicki2.6381214123LOct 10 · 05:40Z. Sobkow3.0012750J. Wieczerzak1.361411113LOct 10 · 04:10Z. Sobkow2.509570M. Lach1.501111113WOct 10 · 03:00Z. Sobkow2.631111113W. Wojtaszczyk1.444880WOct 9 · 14:20Z. Sobkow1.671112113M. Baron2.1041080WOct 9 · 12:40O. Sokolowski2.638660Z. Sobkow1.441111113LOct 9 · 11:50L. Oracz1.4411118113Z. Sobkow2.63691151LOct 9 · 11:00Z. Sobkow2.10991181M. Jozefiak1.6711118113LOct 9 · 09:50Z. Sobkow1.6112591172J. Kaczmarek2.201011115113LOct 9 · 08:10Z. Sobkow1.83911991M. Baron1.8311311113
S. Szostok10
LOct 10 · 07:20S. Szostok2.00811121392W. Wojtaszczyk1.731141411113WOct 10 · 06:05G. Sawicki3.401111891S. Szostok1.3013411113LOct 10 · 04:55J. Wieczerzak1.83119811113S. Szostok1.8331111562WOct 10 · 03:25M. Lach1.8099111162S. Szostok1.91111142113WOct 8 · 14:40W. Urban2.389118151S. Szostok1.5311511173LOct 8 · 13:30S. Szostok2.201151011102K. Slawinski1.61811128123LOct 8 · 12:15J. Pelka1.91118129113S. Szostok1.80911101162LOct 8 · 11:00J. Pruszkowski1.6191111113S. Szostok2.20116981LOct 8 · 09:25O. Sokolowski2.101012118113S. Szostok1.67121091172WOct 8 · 08:35J. Pelka2.2011581192S. Szostok1.61711115113
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