TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Zbigniew Sobkow vs Michal Jozefiak 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911911118811––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:58 and never touched: 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeMichal Jozefiak to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingZbigniew Sobkow above · Michal Jozefiak below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 78 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Michal Jozefiak at 56.6%
78 points played in total.
H2H Zbigniew Sobkow 0–1 Michal Jozefiak Zbigniew Sobkow has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:5856.6%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.4pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Jozefiak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Sobkow 1305 vs Jozefiak 1343
Jozefiak
Correct
both rated, 38 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobkow 40% vs Jozefiak 100%
Jozefiak
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobkow 30% vs Jozefiak 60%
Jozefiak
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobkow -2 · Jozefiak +5
Jozefiak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Jozefiak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jozefiak form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobkow 2.10 / Jozefiak 1.666
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Jozefiak)-3.4pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13267360
Sobkow2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 20 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back22% 7 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 15
Jozefiak1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite50% won 5 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it57% 4 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeSobkow0wins
AwayJozefiak1wins
Jozefiak leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
This 1 meeting
MetricSobkowJozefiakS − JBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match18.033.0−15.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobkowJozefiakBasisWin rate · lifetime68 / 146 vs 22 / 4546.6%48.9%68 / 146 vs 22 / 45Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
JozefiakSobkow 2.10/Jozefiak 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.6%
Jozefiak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jozefiak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LOct 9 · 04:55Z. Sobkow185670M. Jozefiak331111113
Z. Sobkow10
LOct 9 · 11:50L. Oracz1.4411118113Z. Sobkow2.63691151LOct 9 · 09:50Z. Sobkow1.6112591172J. Kaczmarek2.201011115113LOct 9 · 08:10Z. Sobkow1.83911991M. Baron1.8311311113WOct 9 · 06:30R. Idaczyk2.002830Z. Sobkow1.731111113WOct 9 · 05:40J. Kaczmarek2.0075120Z. Sobkow1.731111143LOct 9 · 04:55Z. Sobkow1.735670M. Jozefiak2.001111113LOct 9 · 03:50Z. Sobkow2.1010230L. Oracz1.671211113LSep 27 · 13:55A. Cichocki1.571111113Z. Sobkow2.257630LSep 27 · 13:05P. Polok1.53131112113Z. Sobkow2.381581061WSep 27 · 12:15Z. Sobkow2.50131112113S. Szostok1.501551081
M. Jozefiak10
WOct 9 · 09:25O. Sokolowski2.0071111742M. Jozefiak1.73115911113WOct 9 · 08:35J. Kaczmarek1.9111781592M. Jozefiak1.804111113113WOct 9 · 07:20M. Jozefiak1.8311117143M. Baron1.835511121WOct 9 · 06:05L. Oracz1.5371060M. Jozefiak2.381112113WOct 9 · 04:55Z. Sobkow1.735670M. Jozefiak2.001111113LOct 9 · 03:25R. Idaczyk1.731111113M. Jozefiak2.003940WOct 6 · 17:05M. Rus1.6251581192M. Jozefiak2.171113115113LOct 6 · 15:55M. Jozefiak2.503390K. Hetnar1.451111113LOct 6 · 14:45K. Smolka1.67118113113M. Jozefiak2.1051171152LOct 6 · 13:30B. Madej2.359111110113M. Jozefiak1.5011871222
Upcoming Matches
Z. Sobkow
Oct 9 · 12:40Z. Sobkow1.44O. Sokolowski2.63—Oct 9 · 14:20Z. Sobkow1.67M. Baron2.10—Oct 10 · 03:00Z. Sobkow2.63W. Wojtaszczyk1.44—Oct 10 · 04:10Z. Sobkow2.50M. Lach1.50—Oct 10 · 05:40Z. Sobkow3.00J. Wieczerzak1.36—Oct 10 · 06:55Z. Sobkow1.44G. Sawicki2.63—Oct 10 · 08:35Z. Sobkow2.63S. Szostok1.44—Oct 10 · 09:50Z. Sobkow1.36I. Szymanski3.00—Oct 10 · 12:15Z. Sobkow2.50S. Szostok1.50—Oct 10 · 13:05Z. Sobkow3.00J. Wieczerzak1.36—
M. Jozefiak
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