Jakub Kaczmarek vs Michal Jozefiak 2-3

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite Series

Played Oct 9Finished

Jakub Kaczmarek

Home

1.91

At publish

Lost last 3

Form at publish

2–8Last 10Lost last 3

Final

2 – 3

Set by set

1147118111513911

Michal Jozefiak

Away

1.80

At publish

Won last 3

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 3

The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:32 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Michal Jozefiak to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingJakub Kaczmarek above · Michal Jozefiak below

Set 1 · 11-4

Set 2 · 7-11

Set 3 · 8-11

Set 4 · 15-13

Set 5 · 9-11

Point 100 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Michal Jozefiak at 54.0%

100 points played in total.

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 08:32

54.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80

short by 1.6pp

55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)

What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.80 (51%)

Jozefiak

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

No meetings

—

No value

they have never met

Rating (G2)

Kaczmarek 1230 vs Jozefiak 1325

Jozefiak

Correct

both rated, 95 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Kaczmarek 20% vs Jozefiak 80%

Jozefiak

Correct

60pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Kaczmarek 20% vs Jozefiak 50%

Jozefiak

Correct

30pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Kaczmarek -3 · Jozefiak +3

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Jozefiak) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Jozefiak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsKaczmarek 1.909 / Jozefiak 1.80

Signal prob.46% / 54%

Edge (Jozefiak)-1.6pp (anti-value)

TT Elite Series · #13264378

Kaczmarek1.91

20%won 2 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 3

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As underdog36% won 182 of 513

Down 0–1, comes back18% 57 of 316

Down 0–2, comes back2% 4 of 179

Jozefiak1.80

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 3

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite50% won 5 of 10

Up 1–0, closes it57% 4 of 7

Head to head

H2H window

First meeting

These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.

Career, not this matchup

MetricKaczmarekJozefiakBasisWin rate · lifetime517 / 1373 vs 20 / 4337.7%46.5%517 / 1373 vs 20 / 43Avg sets wonper match1.62.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.038.3per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Jozefiak

Kaczmarek 1.91/Jozefiak 1.80

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

54%

Jozefiak · sealed before the serve

What happened

2–3

Jozefiak won

Total sets · Score

These two have never met.

The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.

Recent Results

J. Kaczmarek10