TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jakub Kaczmarek vs Rafal Idaczyk 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711117711611––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:07 and never touched: 63.2% is still 63.2%
Graded at full timeRafal Idaczyk to win
63.2%
63.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Kaczmarek above · Rafal Idaczyk below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 71 set 4, 6-11 · our read held Rafal Idaczyk at 63.2%
71 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Kaczmarek 11–61 Rafal Idaczyk Jakub Kaczmarek has won 11 of their 72 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:0763.2%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 0.5pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Idaczyk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-61 in 72
Idaczyk
Correct
gap of 50 in 72, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaczmarek 1260 vs Idaczyk 1350
Idaczyk
Correct
both rated, 90 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaczmarek 40% vs Idaczyk 80%
Idaczyk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaczmarek 40% vs Idaczyk 70%
Idaczyk
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaczmarek +1 · Idaczyk +4
Idaczyk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Idaczyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Idaczyk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaczmarek 2.25 / Idaczyk 1.571
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Idaczyk)-0.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13264248
Kaczmarek2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 180 of 507
Down 0–1, comes back18% 55 of 312
Down 0–2, comes back2% 4 of 179
Idaczyk1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite62% won 124 of 199
Up 2–0, closes it96% 73 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it81% 100 of 123
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKaczmarek2wins
AwayIdaczyk8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderIdaczyk leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaczmarekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayIdaczyk87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaczmarek2Idaczyk8n = 10Idaczyk took 8 of 10
S2Kaczmarek1Idaczyk9n = 10Idaczyk took 9 of 10
S3Kaczmarek4Idaczyk6n = 10Idaczyk took 6 of 10
S4Kaczmarek1Idaczyk5n = 6Idaczyk took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricKaczmarekIdaczykK − IBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match31.939.4−7.5per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaczmarekIdaczykBasisWin rate · lifetime517 / 1370 vs 492 / 98337.7%50.1%517 / 1370 vs 492 / 983Avg sets wonper match1.61.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.135.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
IdaczykKaczmarek 2.25/Idaczyk 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.2%
Idaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Idaczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 7 · 04:25J. Kaczmarek49116119123R. Idaczyk47611911102
LOct 6 · 03:10J. Kaczmarek31781151R. Idaczyk4111118113
LSep 15 · 04:50J. Kaczmarek2031160R. Idaczyk351113113
LSep 1 · 06:25J. Kaczmarek2358100R. Idaczyk341111123
LAug 11 · 06:25J. Kaczmarek31651191R. Idaczyk3711114113
WJun 29 · 13:05J. Kaczmarek511011811113R. Idaczyk4512711962
LJun 29 · 06:55J. Kaczmarek34781451R. Idaczyk45111112113
LMay 27 · 04:50J. Kaczmarek2174100R. Idaczyk341111123
LMay 26 · 04:00J. Kaczmarek381181091R. Idaczyk4391112113
LMay 20 · 18:00J. Kaczmarek214980R. Idaczyk331111113
J. Kaczmarek10
WOct 9 · 03:00J. Kaczmarek1.83711611113M. Baron1.8311911482LOct 8 · 16:20J. Badura1.4211411113J. Kaczmarek2.68811541LOct 8 · 15:30J. Nowak2.05611411113J. Kaczmarek1.7011811592WOct 8 · 14:45J. Kaczmarek2.5681112113K. Schaniel1.461161071LOct 8 · 13:10J. Kaczmarek1.8511712542P. Slosarczyk1.859111011113LOct 8 · 12:20W. Glanowski1.858111115113J. Kaczmarek1.85111341392LOct 8 · 11:05J. Kaczmarek2.15117841K. Schaniel1.6491111113WOct 8 · 09:30J. Kaczmarek1.757111110113J. Nowak1.9511091242WOct 8 · 08:20J. Kaczmarek2.0071211113W. Glanowski1.711110891LOct 8 · 06:45J. Kaczmarek2.472371261J. Badura1.49211114113
R. Idaczyk10
WOct 9 · 03:25R. Idaczyk1.731111113M. Jozefiak2.003940WOct 7 · 08:00R. Idaczyk1.801112143A. Burkacki1.85810120WOct 7 · 06:45R. Idaczyk1.82111154113M. Adamus1.885871182WOct 7 · 05:35R. Idaczyk1.551113153J. Nowak2.30711130LOct 7 · 04:25J. Kaczmarek2.50116119123R. Idaczyk1.45611911102LOct 7 · 03:35R. Idaczyk1.94126371P. Adamus1.68101111113WOct 6 · 08:20O. Vincenec1.98671461R. Idaczyk1.73111112113WOct 6 · 07:35M. Cesarz3.25711781R. Idaczyk1.2711411113WOct 6 · 05:35R. Skotniczny1.473770R. Idaczyk2.401111113LOct 6 · 04:50A. Ruszkiewicz1.83117116113R. Idaczyk1.8771181162
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R. Idaczyk
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