TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jakub Kaczmarek vs Mariusz Baron 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711119611114118
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:55 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMariusz Baron to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Kaczmarek above · Mariusz Baron below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 89 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Mariusz Baron at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Kaczmarek 36–29 Mariusz Baron Mariusz Baron has won 29 of their 65 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:5554.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Baron
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
36-29 in 65
Kaczmarek
Correct
gap of 7 in 65, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaczmarek 1247 vs Baron 1310
Baron
Wrong
both rated, 64 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaczmarek 20% vs Baron 40%
Baron
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaczmarek 40% vs Baron 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaczmarek -2 · Baron -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Baron) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baron form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaczmarek 1.833 / Baron 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Baron)-0.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13264246
Kaczmarek1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Baron1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 08)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKaczmarek5wins
AwayBaron5wins
8 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 8 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaczmarekn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayBaron55.6%5 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaczmarek1Baron9n = 10Baron took 9 of 10
S2Kaczmarek8Baron2n = 10Kaczmarek took 8 of 10
S3Kaczmarek4Baron6n = 10Baron took 6 of 10
S4Kaczmarek7Baron2n = 9Kaczmarek took 7 of 9
S5Kaczmarek4Baron4n = 8split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKaczmarekBaronK − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match45.747.8−2.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaczmarekBaronBasisWin rate · lifetime516 / 1369 vs 885 / 185537.7%47.7%516 / 1369 vs 885 / 1855Avg sets wonper match1.62.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.039.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BaronKaczmarek 1.83/Baron 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Baron · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kaczmarek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 18 · 19:20J. Kaczmarek4351191352M. Baron531191111113
LAug 24 · 12:15J. Kaczmarek4271181152M. Baron47115119113
WAug 24 · 08:35J. Kaczmarek501061111123M. Baron46121149102
WAug 13 · 04:10J. Kaczmarek361111143M. Baron3099120
LAug 7 · 09:00J. Kaczmarek44101111752M. Baron51128911113
WAug 7 · 04:30J. Kaczmarek48611911113M. Baron4711911972
WAug 1 · 06:45J. Kaczmarek49611811133M. Baron48116119112
LJul 25 · 05:35J. Kaczmarek45512611112M. Baron541110119133
WJul 22 · 11:25J. Kaczmarek568121114113M. Baron541110131282
LJul 22 · 05:15J. Kaczmarek44101211111M. Baron4812149133
J. Kaczmarek10
LOct 9 · 04:10J. Kaczmarek2.25711761R. Idaczyk1.5711711113LOct 8 · 16:20J. Badura1.4211411113J. Kaczmarek2.68811541LOct 8 · 15:30J. Nowak2.05611411113J. Kaczmarek1.7011811592WOct 8 · 14:45J. Kaczmarek2.5681112113K. Schaniel1.461161071LOct 8 · 13:10J. Kaczmarek1.8511712542P. Slosarczyk1.859111011113LOct 8 · 12:20W. Glanowski1.858111115113J. Kaczmarek1.85111341392LOct 8 · 11:05J. Kaczmarek2.15117841K. Schaniel1.6491111113WOct 8 · 09:30J. Kaczmarek1.757111110113J. Nowak1.9511091242WOct 8 · 08:20J. Kaczmarek2.0071211113W. Glanowski1.711110891LOct 8 · 06:45J. Kaczmarek2.472371261J. Badura1.49211114113
M. Baron10
WOct 9 · 04:30L. Oracz1.738790M. Baron2.001111113LOct 8 · 02:20A. Burkacki1.901211113M. Baron1.8010850LOct 8 · 01:35P. Kurek1.511111113M. Baron2.235360WOct 7 · 23:35M. Koczyba1.407860M. Baron2.521111113LOct 7 · 22:50T. Wrzalik1.79111179113M. Baron1.8177111182WOct 7 · 21:10P. Gumulinski1.803790M. Baron1.851111113WOct 7 · 20:20A. Ruszkiewicz1.986124121M. Baron1.75111011143LOct 7 · 19:35W. Pytlas1.571111113M. Baron2.256930LOct 7 · 17:35M. Koczyba1.4611911113M. Baron2.50711481LOct 7 · 16:50S. Krupa1.851111123M. Baron1.8577100
Upcoming Matches
J. Kaczmarek
Oct 9 · 05:40J. Kaczmarek2.00Z. Sobkow1.73—Oct 9 · 06:55J. Kaczmarek2.25L. Oracz1.57—Oct 9 · 08:35J. Kaczmarek1.91M. Jozefiak1.80—Oct 9 · 09:50J. Kaczmarek—Z. Sobkow——Oct 9 · 10:35J. Kaczmarek1.83M. Baron1.83—Oct 9 · 12:15J. Kaczmarek—M. Jozefiak——Oct 9 · 13:05J. Kaczmarek2.25L. Oracz1.57—Oct 9 · 13:55J. Kaczmarek1.73O. Sokolowski2.00—
M. Baron
Oct 9 · 05:15M. Baron2.00R. Idaczyk1.73—Oct 9 · 07:20M. Baron1.83M. Jozefiak1.83—Oct 9 · 08:10M. Baron1.83Z. Sobkow1.83—Oct 9 · 09:00M. Baron2.10L. Oracz1.67—Oct 9 · 10:35M. Baron1.83J. Kaczmarek1.83—Oct 9 · 11:25M. Baron1.73O. Sokolowski2.00—Oct 9 · 13:30M. Baron—M. Jozefiak——Oct 9 · 14:20M. Baron1.83Z. Sobkow1.83—
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