TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Lukasz Oracz vs Michal Jozefiak 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
7111012611––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:00 and never touched: 61.6% is still 61.6%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
61.6%
61.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Lukasz Oracz @ 1.50 · Lost
How it is goingLukasz Oracz above · Michal Jozefiak below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 57 set 3, 6-11 · our read held Lukasz Oracz at 61.6%
57 points played in total.
H2H Lukasz Oracz 3–2 Michal Jozefiak Michal Jozefiak has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pick
Sealed 06:00Sent to Pro: Lukasz Oracz @ 1.50 · Lost
61.6%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 3.6pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Oracz
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oracz 1353 vs Jozefiak 1311
Oracz
Wrong
both rated, 43 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oracz 40% vs Jozefiak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oracz 40% vs Jozefiak 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Oracz -1 · Jozefiak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 62% · Slight lean (leans Oracz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oracz form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOracz 1.533 / Jozefiak 2.375
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Oracz)-3.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13264313
Oracz1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 356 of 563
Up 2–0, closes it97% 201 of 208
Up 1–0, closes it81% 279 of 343
Jozefiak2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 4 of 11
Down 0–1, comes back22% 2 of 9
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeOracz3wins
AwayJozefiak2wins
1 of 5 to a deciderOracz leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOracz100%3 of 3
AwayJozefiakn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oracz3Jozefiak2n = 5Oracz took 3 of 5
S2Oracz3Jozefiak2n = 5Oracz took 3 of 5
S3Oracz3Jozefiak2n = 5Oracz took 3 of 5
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricOraczJozefiakO − JBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match33.833.80.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOraczJozefiakBasisWin rate · lifetime874 / 1591 vs 19 / 4254.9%45.2%874 / 1591 vs 19 / 42Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OraczOracz 1.53/Jozefiak 2.38
Miss
What we said
61.6%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Lukasz Oracz @ 1.50 · Lost
What happened
0–3
Jozefiak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LOct 9 · 06:05L. Oracz2371060M. Jozefiak341112113
LOct 1 · 06:45L. Oracz28311591M. Jozefiak3711411113
WOct 1 · 00:45L. Oracz47119115113M. Jozefiak4471171182
WSep 24 · 14:20L. Oracz381113143M. Jozefiak31811120
WSep 24 · 08:10L. Oracz331111113M. Jozefiak239770
L. Oracz10
LOct 9 · 04:30L. Oracz1.738790M. Baron2.001111113WOct 9 · 03:50Z. Sobkow2.1010230L. Oracz1.671211113WOct 7 · 14:20L. Oracz2.101111113J. Pruszkowski1.679890LOct 7 · 12:40K. Slawinski1.61111211113L. Oracz2.20914761LOct 7 · 11:50O. Vincenec1.7311125113L. Oracz2.006101171WOct 7 · 11:00L. Oracz1.30671111113P. Slosarczyk3.4011115452WOct 7 · 09:50L. Oracz1.671119113P. Przewlocki2.1021730LOct 7 · 08:10L. Oracz2.20127471J. Pruszkowski1.61101111113LOct 7 · 06:30K. Slawinski1.57111494113L. Oracz2.25612111152LOct 7 · 05:40P. Przewlocki2.00119117123L. Oracz1.73811711102
M. Jozefiak10
WOct 9 · 04:55Z. Sobkow1.735670M. Jozefiak2.001111113LOct 9 · 03:25R. Idaczyk1.731111113M. Jozefiak2.003940WOct 6 · 17:05M. Rus1.6251581192M. Jozefiak2.171113115113LOct 6 · 15:55M. Jozefiak2.503390K. Hetnar1.451111113LOct 6 · 14:45K. Smolka1.67118113113M. Jozefiak2.1051171152LOct 6 · 13:30B. Madej2.359111110113M. Jozefiak1.5011871222WOct 6 · 11:55S. Juzek2.15941151M. Jozefiak1.6011118113LOct 6 · 09:55M. Jozefiak2.006750K. Hetnar1.701111113LOct 6 · 08:45M. Rus1.87101111113M. Jozefiak1.84124691LOct 6 · 07:30B. Madej2.376121311113M. Jozefiak1.52111015952
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