TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Kacper Slawinski vs Lukasz Oracz 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191214117116––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:34 and never touched: 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeKacper Slawinski to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingKacper Slawinski above · Lukasz Oracz below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 81 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Kacper Slawinski at 60.9%
81 points played in total.
H2H Kacper Slawinski 11–6 Lukasz Oracz Lukasz Oracz has won 6 of their 17 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Slawinski beat Oracz 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:3460.9%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 1.0pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Slawinski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-6 in 17
Slawinski
Correct
gap of 5 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Slawinski 1502 vs Oracz 1369
Slawinski
Correct
both rated, 133 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Slawinski 60% vs Oracz 40%
Slawinski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Slawinski 70% vs Oracz 50%
Slawinski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Slawinski -2 · Oracz -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Slawinski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSlawinski 1.615 / Oracz 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Slawinski)-1.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13254165
Slawinski1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite69% won 157 of 229
Up 2–0, closes it99% 76 of 77
Up 1–0, closes it81% 116 of 144
Oracz2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 125 of 299
Down 0–1, comes back20% 33 of 166
Down 0–2, comes back7% 6 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSlawinski5wins
AwayOracz5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSlawinski100%5 of 5
AwayOracz100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Slawinski5Oracz5n = 10split evenly
S2Slawinski5Oracz5n = 10split evenly
S3Slawinski6Oracz4n = 10Slawinski took 6 of 10
S4Slawinski1Oracz4n = 5Oracz took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSlawinskiOraczS − OBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.234.7−0.5per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSlawinskiOraczBasisWin rate · lifetime619 / 994 vs 872 / 158662.3%55%619 / 994 vs 872 / 1586Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SlawinskiSlawinski 1.61/Oracz 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.9%
Slawinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Slawinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 7 · 06:30K. Slawinski49111494113L. Oracz45612111152
WSep 14 · 13:30K. Slawinski331111113L. Oracz259880
WSep 14 · 07:20K. Slawinski351211123L. Oracz28108100
LSep 10 · 09:00K. Slawinski2548130L. Oracz371111153
LSep 10 · 04:20K. Slawinski4310111391L. Oracz4612815113
WAug 13 · 12:20K. Slawinski331111113L. Oracz208660
LAug 13 · 08:20K. Slawinski196940L. Oracz331111113
WJan 26 · 15:20K. Slawinski4011711113L. Oracz30711481
LJan 26 · 07:20K. Slawinski32991131L. Oracz4111118113
LDec 30 · 17:40K. Slawinski33771181L. Oracz4211119113
K. Slawinski10
LOct 7 · 11:25K. Slawinski1.67951191J. Pruszkowski2.1011113113LOct 7 · 10:10O. Vincenec2.20141110123K. Slawinski1.6112812101WOct 7 · 09:25K. Slawinski1.301111113P. Slosarczyk3.409990WOct 7 · 07:45K. Slawinski1.5312911113O. Vincenec2.381011851WOct 7 · 06:30K. Slawinski1.57111494113L. Oracz2.25612111152WOct 7 · 05:15K. Slawinski1.67101111113J. Pruszkowski2.10127991WOct 7 · 04:10P. Przewlocki2.387611101K. Slawinski1.5311119123WOct 7 · 03:25K. Slawinski1.25119911113P. Slosarczyk3.7551111422LOct 5 · 14:20J. Badura2.20811116113K. Slawinski1.6111951192WOct 5 · 13:30J. Pruszkowski1.7311511772K. Slawinski2.00511911113
L. Oracz10
LOct 7 · 11:50O. Vincenec1.7311125113L. Oracz2.006101171WOct 7 · 11:00L. Oracz1.30671111113P. Slosarczyk3.4011115452WOct 7 · 09:50L. Oracz1.671119113P. Przewlocki2.1021730LOct 7 · 08:10L. Oracz2.20127471J. Pruszkowski1.61101111113LOct 7 · 06:30K. Slawinski1.57111494113L. Oracz2.25612111152LOct 7 · 05:40P. Przewlocki2.00119117123L. Oracz1.73811711102WOct 7 · 04:55L. Oracz1.301111173P. Slosarczyk3.4068150WOct 7 · 03:50L. Oracz2.001111113O. Vincenec1.739780LOct 6 · 04:20K. Adamus1.551211113L. Oracz2.1510850WOct 6 · 03:30D. Dytko2.4071131192L. Oracz1.51118117113
Upcoming Matches
K. Slawinski
Oct 7 · 13:55K. Slawinski1.57P. Przewlocki2.25—Oct 8 · 03:00K. Slawinski1.50J. Pelka2.50—Oct 8 · 04:30K. Slawinski1.40W. Urban2.75—Oct 8 · 05:15K. Slawinski1.50O. Sokolowski2.50—Oct 8 · 07:20K. Slawinski1.61S. Szostok2.20—Oct 8 · 08:10K. Slawinski1.61J. Pruszkowski2.20—Oct 8 · 09:00K. Slawinski1.40W. Urban2.75—Oct 8 · 10:35K. Slawinski1.50J. Pelka2.50—Oct 8 · 11:25K. Slawinski1.57O. Sokolowski2.25—Oct 8 · 13:30K. Slawinski1.61S. Szostok2.20—
L. Oracz
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