TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Lukasz Oracz vs Oliver Vincenec 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119117118––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:48 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeOliver Vincenec to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukasz Oracz above · Oliver Vincenec below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 57 set 3, 11-8 · our read held Oliver Vincenec at 54.1%
57 points played in total.
H2H Lukasz Oracz 26–33 Oliver Vincenec Lukasz Oracz has won 26 of their 59 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:4854.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.8pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Vincenec
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
26-33 in 59
Vincenec
Wrong
gap of 7 in 59, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oracz 1371 vs Vincenec 1337
Oracz
Correct
both rated, 34 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oracz 40% vs Vincenec 60%
Vincenec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oracz 60% vs Vincenec 40%
Oracz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Oracz -1 · Vincenec -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Vincenec) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOracz 2.00 / Vincenec 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vincenec)-3.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13253508
Oracz2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 06)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 124 of 298
Down 0–1, comes back20% 33 of 165
Down 0–2, comes back7% 6 of 90
Vincenec1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite55% won 133 of 244
Up 2–0, closes it85% 58 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it73% 94 of 128
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOracz3wins
AwayVincenec7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderVincenec leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOracz14.3%1 of 7
AwayVincenec33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oracz7Vincenec3n = 10Oracz took 7 of 10
S2Oracz2Vincenec8n = 10Vincenec took 8 of 10
S3Oracz3Vincenec7n = 10Vincenec took 7 of 10
S4Oracz4Vincenec5n = 9Vincenec took 5 of 9
S5Oracz1Vincenec2n = 3Vincenec took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricOraczVincenecO − VBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.741.4−3.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOraczVincenecBasisWin rate · lifetime868 / 1578 vs 716 / 156355%45.8%868 / 1578 vs 716 / 1563Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VincenecOracz 2.00/Vincenec 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Vincenec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Oracz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 2 · 21:20L. Oracz34115991O. Vincenec3961111113
LOct 2 · 15:25L. Oracz391199101O. Vincenec4391111123
LSep 25 · 21:00L. Oracz31117581O. Vincenec3961111113
LSep 25 · 19:20L. Oracz4011671152O. Vincenec51911119113
LSep 18 · 12:15L. Oracz2891090O. Vincenec341112113
WSep 12 · 01:25L. Oracz45511117113O. Vincenec4411791162
LSep 11 · 19:20L. Oracz361187101O. Vincenec4171111123
WAug 27 · 11:25L. Oracz4111811113O. Vincenec34811781
LAug 27 · 05:15L. Oracz4011561172O. Vincenec50811119113
WAug 17 · 03:05L. Oracz4371111143O. Vincenec391197121
L. Oracz10
WOct 7 · 04:55L. Oracz1.301111173P. Slosarczyk3.4068150LOct 6 · 04:20K. Adamus1.551211113L. Oracz2.1510850WOct 6 · 03:30D. Dytko2.4071131192L. Oracz1.51118117113LOct 6 · 02:10L. Oracz2.2010111031P. Gumulinski1.5712912113LOct 6 · 00:50L. Oracz1.9011670W. Urban1.801311113WOct 6 · 00:10K. Kowalski3.86118741L. Oracz1.2281111113WOct 5 · 23:05L. Oracz1.871111113P. Gumulinski1.838990WOct 5 · 21:30L. Oracz1.57911115113D. Dytko2.2011861182LOct 5 · 20:20L. Oracz1.27121111772K. Kowalski3.351013211113WOct 5 · 18:45L. Oracz1.7511156113K. Adamus1.909131181
O. Vincenec10
WOct 7 · 04:30O. Vincenec2.501211133J. Pruszkowski1.50105110LOct 6 · 08:20O. Vincenec1.98671461R. Idaczyk1.73111112113LOct 6 · 06:45R. Skotniczny2.24116117113O. Vincenec1.5981161182WOct 6 · 06:00J. Kaczmarek2.00111112932O. Vincenec1.70771411113WOct 6 · 05:10O. Vincenec1.451113113M. Cesarz2.5041180WOct 6 · 04:00O. Vincenec1.951111153A. Ruszkiewicz1.7536130LOct 5 · 14:40O. Vincenec2.502711121J. Pruszkowski1.5011117143LOct 5 · 13:05O. Vincenec2.1041131282P. Przewlocki1.671191110113LOct 5 · 11:50O. Vincenec2.101011271J. Badura1.6712911113WOct 5 · 10:10O. Vincenec2.25118113113S. Szostok1.5771151192
Upcoming Matches
L. Oracz
Oct 7 · 05:40L. Oracz1.73P. Przewlocki2.00—Oct 7 · 06:30L. Oracz2.25K. Slawinski1.57—Oct 7 · 08:10L. Oracz2.00J. Pruszkowski1.73—Oct 7 · 09:50L. Oracz1.73P. Przewlocki2.00—Oct 7 · 11:00L. Oracz1.30P. Slosarczyk3.40—Oct 7 · 11:50L. Oracz2.00O. Vincenec1.73—Oct 7 · 12:40L. Oracz2.25K. Slawinski1.57—Oct 7 · 14:20L. Oracz2.00J. Pruszkowski1.73—
O. Vincenec
Oct 7 · 06:05O. Vincenec1.57P. Slosarczyk2.25—Oct 7 · 06:55O. Vincenec1.80P. Przewlocki1.91—Oct 7 · 07:45O. Vincenec2.25K. Slawinski1.57—Oct 7 · 09:00O. Vincenec2.50J. Pruszkowski1.50—Oct 7 · 10:10O. Vincenec2.25K. Slawinski1.57—Oct 7 · 11:50O. Vincenec1.73L. Oracz2.00—Oct 7 · 13:05O. Vincenec1.80P. Przewlocki1.91—Oct 7 · 14:40O. Vincenec1.57P. Slosarczyk2.25—
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