TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Oliver Vincenec vs Jaroslaw Badura 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012119211711––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:48 and never touched: 58.2% is still 58.2%
Graded at full timeJaroslaw Badura to win
58.2%
58.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOliver Vincenec above · Jaroslaw Badura below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 73 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Jaroslaw Badura at 58.2%
73 points played in total.
H2H Oliver Vincenec 4–10 Jaroslaw Badura Oliver Vincenec has won 4 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:4858.2%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 1.8pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Badura
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-10 in 14
Badura
Correct
gap of 6 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vincenec 1355 vs Badura 1401
Badura
Correct
both rated, 46 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vincenec 40% vs Badura 20%
Vincenec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vincenec 50% vs Badura 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vincenec +1 · Badura -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Badura) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Badura form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVincenec 2.10 / Badura 1.666
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Badura)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13243310
Vincenec2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 187 of 461
Down 0–1, comes back25% 67 of 274
Down 0–2, comes back8% 11 of 138
Badura1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite73% won 79 of 109
Up 2–0, closes it95% 39 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it88% 57 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVincenec3wins
AwayBadura7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBadura leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVincenec60%3 of 5
AwayBadura100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vincenec5Badura5n = 10split evenly
S2Vincenec4Badura6n = 10Badura took 6 of 10
S3Vincenec4Badura6n = 10Badura took 6 of 10
S4Vincenec3Badura5n = 8Badura took 5 of 8
S5Vincenec1Badura2n = 3Badura took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVincenecBaduraV − BBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.040.0−4.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVincenecBaduraBasisWin rate · lifetime713 / 1555 vs 306 / 55845.9%54.8%713 / 1555 vs 306 / 558Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BaduraVincenec 2.10/Badura 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.2%
Badura · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Badura won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 5 · 03:50O. Vincenec172870J. Badura331111113
LJun 20 · 09:50O. Vincenec40114101142J. Badura51811129113
LFeb 8 · 17:50O. Vincenec32991131J. Badura4011117113
LFeb 2 · 03:45O. Vincenec388116131J. Badura4611911153
LFeb 1 · 19:25O. Vincenec50111211972J. Badura47414711113
LJan 12 · 02:10O. Vincenec26731151J. Badura4211119113
WJan 11 · 20:10O. Vincenec46114911113J. Badura4481111772
WJan 5 · 01:00O. Vincenec4211119113J. Badura27361171
LJan 4 · 17:00O. Vincenec33811591J. Badura4211911113
WDec 14 · 19:00O. Vincenec361114113J. Badura2881280
O. Vincenec10
WOct 5 · 10:10O. Vincenec2.25118113113S. Szostok1.5771151192LOct 5 · 09:00O. Vincenec2.75911781K. Slawinski1.4011711113LOct 5 · 07:45K. Slawinski1.40118117113O. Vincenec2.7581171172WOct 5 · 06:55P. Przewlocki1.7371151182O. Vincenec2.00115112113LOct 5 · 06:05O. Vincenec2.5012750J. Pruszkowski1.501411113WOct 5 · 04:30O. Vincenec2.10117138123S. Szostok1.674111111102LOct 5 · 03:50J. Badura1.671111113O. Vincenec2.102870WOct 3 · 01:45O. Vincenec1.731311611113G. Sawicki2.0015711872LOct 3 · 00:35O. Vincenec1.831011111192J. Nowak1.83128813113WOct 2 · 23:20O. Vincenec2.101111113M. Baron1.678860
J. Badura10
LOct 5 · 11:00J. Badura2.38911111182J. Pruszkowski1.53111397113WOct 5 · 09:50J. Badura1.6161211113P. Przewlocki2.201110451LOct 5 · 08:10J. Badura2.101110781S. Szostok1.6781211113LOct 5 · 06:30K. Slawinski1.67812911113J. Badura2.10111011842LOct 5 · 05:40P. Przewlocki1.831381110123J. Badura1.831111612102WOct 5 · 04:55J. Badura2.2513711113J. Pruszkowski1.571111881WOct 5 · 03:50J. Badura1.671111113O. Vincenec2.102870LOct 4 · 05:05M. Durda1.871211113J. Badura1.8310570LOct 4 · 03:55J. Badura1.7011111010122M. Sikon2.05861212143WOct 4 · 02:45R. Wiza1.908860J. Badura1.801111113
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