TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jaroslaw Badura vs Jakub Pruszkowski 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
9111113119117811
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:56 and never touched: 59.6% is still 59.6%
Graded at full timeJakub Pruszkowski to win
59.6%
59.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslaw Badura above · Jakub Pruszkowski below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 101 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Jakub Pruszkowski at 59.6%
101 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslaw Badura 4–11 Jakub Pruszkowski Jaroslaw Badura has won 4 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:5659.6%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 5.6pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Pruszkowski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-11 in 15
Pruszkowski
Correct
gap of 7 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Badura 1401 vs Pruszkowski 1364
Badura
Wrong
both rated, 37 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Badura 40% vs Pruszkowski 20%
Badura
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Badura 50% vs Pruszkowski 20%
Badura
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Badura +1 · Pruszkowski -3
Pruszkowski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Pruszkowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pruszkowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBadura 2.375 / Pruszkowski 1.533
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Pruszkowski)-5.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13243441
Badura2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 48 of 117
Down 0–1, comes back22% 15 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 37
Pruszkowski1.53
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 438 of 674
Up 2–0, closes it95% 221 of 232
Up 1–0, closes it82% 337 of 409
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBadura4wins
AwayPruszkowski6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPruszkowski leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaduran = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayPruszkowski75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Badura2Pruszkowski8n = 10Pruszkowski took 8 of 10
S2Badura3Pruszkowski7n = 10Pruszkowski took 7 of 10
S3Badura7Pruszkowski3n = 10Badura took 7 of 10
S4Badura4Pruszkowski3n = 7Badura took 4 of 7
S5Badura1Pruszkowski2n = 3Pruszkowski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricBaduraPruszkowskiB − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match38.240.5−2.3per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaduraPruszkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime306 / 558 vs 1157 / 183154.8%63.2%306 / 558 vs 1157 / 1831Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.739.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PruszkowskiBadura 2.38/Pruszkowski 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.6%
Pruszkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pruszkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 5 · 11:00J. Badura50911111182J. Pruszkowski51111397113
WOct 5 · 04:55J. Badura4213711113J. Pruszkowski381111881
WAug 23 · 22:50J. Badura47111311123J. Pruszkowski3813114101
WAug 23 · 15:10J. Badura517111110123J. Pruszkowski43118212102
WAug 10 · 00:45J. Badura3911511123J. Pruszkowski389118101
LAug 9 · 18:45J. Badura49811111092J. Pruszkowski50117912113
LJul 27 · 02:00J. Badura227870J. Pruszkowski331111113
LJul 13 · 02:45J. Badura2310760J. Pruszkowski341211113
LJul 12 · 18:25J. Badura4051311111J. Pruszkowski4711158133
LJan 5 · 03:45J. Badura199460J. Pruszkowski331111113
J. Badura10
WOct 5 · 09:50J. Badura1.6161211113P. Przewlocki2.201110451LOct 5 · 08:10J. Badura2.101110781S. Szostok1.6781211113LOct 5 · 06:30K. Slawinski1.67812911113J. Badura2.10111011842LOct 5 · 05:40P. Przewlocki1.831381110123J. Badura1.831111612102WOct 5 · 04:55J. Badura2.2513711113J. Pruszkowski1.571111881WOct 5 · 03:50J. Badura1.671111113O. Vincenec2.102870LOct 4 · 05:05M. Durda1.871211113J. Badura1.8310570LOct 4 · 03:55J. Badura1.7011111010122M. Sikon2.05861212143WOct 4 · 02:45R. Wiza1.908860J. Badura1.801111113WOct 4 · 01:30G. Sawicki3.658770J. Badura1.241111113
J. Pruszkowski10
LOct 5 · 09:25S. Szostok2.108111110113J. Pruszkowski1.6711671262LOct 5 · 08:35P. Przewlocki2.759131011113J. Pruszkowski1.40111112692LOct 5 · 07:20J. Pruszkowski1.8310730S. Szostok1.831211113WOct 5 · 06:05O. Vincenec2.5012750J. Pruszkowski1.501411113LOct 5 · 04:55J. Badura2.2513711113J. Pruszkowski1.571111881LOct 5 · 03:25K. Slawinski1.9111118113J. Pruszkowski1.80861191LSep 30 · 00:10M. Skorski1.761112113J. Pruszkowski1.9691050LSep 29 · 23:45J. Pruszkowski1.371041131B. Mrugala2.9012117113LSep 29 · 22:55J. Pruszkowski1.8341161162K. Klocek1.89114118113WSep 29 · 21:05J. Pruszkowski1.5011185113J. Rolak2.358161171
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