TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Sebastian Szostok vs Jakub Pruszkowski 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111161171012116
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:21 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Pruszkowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSebastian Szostok above · Jakub Pruszkowski below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 93 set 5, 11-6 · our read held Jakub Pruszkowski at 54.0%
93 points played in total.
H2H Sebastian Szostok 49–33 Jakub Pruszkowski Jakub Pruszkowski has won 33 of their 82 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Szostok beat Pruszkowski 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:2154.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 6.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Pruszkowski
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
49-33 in 82
Szostok
Correct
gap of 16 in 82, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szostok 1451 vs Pruszkowski 1359
Szostok
Correct
both rated, 93 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szostok 60% vs Pruszkowski 20%
Szostok
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szostok 70% vs Pruszkowski 20%
Szostok
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Szostok +2 · Pruszkowski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Pruszkowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pruszkowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzostok 2.10 / Pruszkowski 1.666
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Pruszkowski)-6.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13243398
Szostok2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog49% won 72 of 147
Down 0–1, comes back32% 28 of 87
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 38
Pruszkowski1.67
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite65% won 438 of 674
Up 2–0, closes it95% 221 of 232
Up 1–0, closes it82% 337 of 409
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSzostok6wins
AwayPruszkowski4wins
7 of 10 to a deciderSzostok leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzostok75%3 of 4
AwayPruszkowski50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szostok4Pruszkowski6n = 10Pruszkowski took 6 of 10
S2Szostok8Pruszkowski2n = 10Szostok took 8 of 10
S3Szostok7Pruszkowski3n = 10Szostok took 7 of 10
S4Szostok2Pruszkowski6n = 8Pruszkowski took 6 of 8
S5Szostok4Pruszkowski3n = 7Szostok took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSzostokPruszkowskiS − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.839.1+3.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzostokPruszkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime906 / 1566 vs 1156 / 182957.9%63.2%906 / 1566 vs 1156 / 1829Avg sets wonper match2.32.3per matchAvg pointsper match40.239.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PruszkowskiSzostok 2.10/Pruszkowski 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Pruszkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Szostok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 5 · 07:20S. Szostok341211113J. Pruszkowski2010730
LSep 11 · 16:20S. Szostok4111115772J. Pruszkowski46671111113
LSep 11 · 06:45S. Szostok51129111272J. Pruszkowski531411710113
LSep 8 · 14:45S. Szostok32811671J. Pruszkowski4111811113
WSep 8 · 11:05S. Szostok47711117113J. Pruszkowski4411871172
WAug 19 · 02:35S. Szostok518111110113J. Pruszkowski4011771232
WAug 18 · 19:20S. Szostok331111113J. Pruszkowski206860
LAug 13 · 11:55S. Szostok45411111272J. Pruszkowski49118514113
WAug 13 · 05:55S. Szostok45811411113J. Pruszkowski3911511662
WAug 12 · 02:10S. Szostok49118118113J. Pruszkowski3941191142
S. Szostok10
WOct 5 · 08:10J. Badura2.101110781S. Szostok1.6781211113WOct 5 · 07:20J. Pruszkowski1.8310730S. Szostok1.831211113LOct 5 · 05:15K. Slawinski1.83121110113S. Szostok1.831051261LOct 5 · 04:30O. Vincenec2.10117138123S. Szostok1.674111111102WOct 5 · 03:00P. Przewlocki2.38119113102S. Szostok1.53511811123WOct 4 · 17:05S. Szostok1.27141011113I. Szymanski3.251212841WOct 4 · 15:30S. Szostok2.40118117113P. Jedrzejak1.4771161172WOct 4 · 14:20S. Szostok1.50101211113M. Malecha2.401210781WOct 4 · 12:45S. Szostok1.85911512113L. Oracz1.85116111082LOct 4 · 11:30S. Szostok1.83611761M. Oracz1.8311711113
J. Pruszkowski10
LOct 5 · 08:35P. Przewlocki2.759131011113J. Pruszkowski1.40111112692LOct 5 · 07:20J. Pruszkowski1.8310730S. Szostok1.831211113WOct 5 · 06:05O. Vincenec2.5012750J. Pruszkowski1.501411113LOct 5 · 04:55J. Badura2.2513711113J. Pruszkowski1.571111881LOct 5 · 03:25K. Slawinski1.9111118113J. Pruszkowski1.80861191LSep 30 · 00:10M. Skorski1.761112113J. Pruszkowski1.9691050LSep 29 · 23:45J. Pruszkowski1.371041131B. Mrugala2.9012117113LSep 29 · 22:55J. Pruszkowski1.8341161162K. Klocek1.89114118113WSep 29 · 21:05J. Pruszkowski1.5011185113J. Rolak2.358161171LSep 29 · 20:05B. Mrugala1.581310118113J. Pruszkowski2.25111251172
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