TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Oliver Vincenec vs Jakub Nowak 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
10121181181113911
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:31 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOliver Vincenec to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOliver Vincenec above · Jakub Nowak below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 104 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Oliver Vincenec at 54.0%
104 points played in total.
H2H Oliver Vincenec 13–20 Jakub Nowak Oliver Vincenec has won 13 of their 33 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Vincenec beat Nowak 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 00:3154.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Nowak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-20 in 33
Nowak
Correct
gap of 7 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vincenec 1345 vs Nowak 1261
Vincenec
Wrong
both rated, 84 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vincenec 80% vs Nowak 20%
Vincenec
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vincenec 80% vs Nowak 40%
Vincenec
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vincenec +3 · Nowak -2
Vincenec
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Vincenec) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nowak form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVincenec 1.833 / Nowak 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Vincenec)-0.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13233042
Vincenec1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Nowak1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVincenec4wins
AwayNowak6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNowak leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVincenec75%3 of 4
AwayNowak83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vincenec4Nowak6n = 10Nowak took 6 of 10
S2Vincenec3Nowak7n = 10Nowak took 7 of 10
S3Vincenec4Nowak6n = 10Nowak took 6 of 10
S4Vincenec3Nowak6n = 9Nowak took 6 of 9
S5Vincenec3Nowak0n = 3Vincenec took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVincenecNowakV − NBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.843.8−4.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVincenecNowakBasisWin rate · lifetime709 / 1547 vs 669 / 176045.8%38%709 / 1547 vs 669 / 1760Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VincenecVincenec 1.83/Nowak 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Vincenec · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Nowak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 2 · 18:30O. Vincenec7411221414133J. Nowak729241612112
WSep 18 · 03:25O. Vincenec51119812113J. Nowak48711111092
LSep 14 · 03:55O. Vincenec33791161J. Nowak3611113113
LSep 13 · 21:55O. Vincenec367115131J. Nowak4111411153
LAug 8 · 04:50O. Vincenec28114581J. Nowak4291111113
LJul 30 · 09:25O. Vincenec34711791J. Nowak4211911113
WJul 30 · 03:25O. Vincenec3961111113J. Nowak33117871
LJul 29 · 06:25O. Vincenec33791161J. Nowak4111118113
WJul 7 · 06:00O. Vincenec47145116113J. Nowak50121191172
LJun 19 · 03:35O. Vincenec238960J. Nowak331111113
O. Vincenec10
WOct 2 · 23:20O. Vincenec2.101111113M. Baron1.678860WOct 2 · 22:10K. Juszczyk1.6111116462O. Vincenec2.20491111113WOct 2 · 21:20O. Vincenec1.8061111113L. Oracz1.91115991LOct 2 · 19:40O. Vincenec2.1091312682K. Juszczyk1.6711111011113WOct 2 · 18:30O. Vincenec1.8311221414133J. Nowak1.839241612112WOct 2 · 17:20O. Vincenec2.201141313113M. Baron1.61811111562WOct 2 · 16:15K. Kowalski3.408870O. Vincenec1.301111113WOct 2 · 15:25O. Vincenec1.8091111123L. Oracz1.911199101WOct 1 · 14:40O. Vincenec1.611111113M. Baron2.209990LOct 1 · 13:05O. Vincenec1.57912651P. Slosarczyk2.25111011113
J. Nowak10
LOct 2 · 23:45K. Juszczyk1.4411118113J. Nowak2.63871151LOct 2 · 22:55J. Nowak2.104440L. Oracz1.671111113WOct 2 · 21:45J. Nowak1.914111111113G. Sawicki1.8011137872LOct 2 · 20:05J. Nowak2.00910121192M. Baron1.731112108113LOct 2 · 18:30O. Vincenec1.8311221414133J. Nowak1.839241612112WOct 2 · 17:45K. Kowalski3.001031191J. Nowak1.3612113113LOct 2 · 16:55J. Nowak2.3845110L. Oracz1.531111133WOct 2 · 15:50J. Nowak2.2510101111113K. Juszczyk1.5712127662LOct 1 · 17:05W. Ptak1.581111123J. Nowak2.2573100WOct 1 · 15:55J. Nowak1.851111113J. Kaczmarek1.858990
Upcoming Matches
O. Vincenec
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J. Nowak
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