TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jakub Nowak vs Mariusz Baron 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
91110121210118911
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:57 and never touched: 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeMariusz Baron to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Nowak above · Mariusz Baron below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 103 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Mariusz Baron at 55.3%
103 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Nowak 48–69 Mariusz Baron Jakub Nowak has won 48 of their 117 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:5755.3%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 2.6pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Baron
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
48-69 in 117
Baron
Correct
gap of 21 in 117, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nowak 1255 vs Baron 1333
Baron
Correct
both rated, 78 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nowak 40% vs Baron 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nowak 30% vs Baron 60%
Baron
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nowak -1 · Baron -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Slight lean (leans Baron) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baron form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNowak 2.00 / Baron 1.727
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Baron)-2.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13232568
Nowak2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog37% won 244 of 668
Down 0–1, comes back21% 84 of 400
Down 0–2, comes back8% 20 of 237
Baron1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 202 of 373
Up 2–0, closes it79% 94 of 119
Up 1–0, closes it67% 144 of 216
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNowak3wins
AwayBaron7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderBaron leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNowak40%2 of 5
AwayBaron80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nowak5Baron5n = 10split evenly
S2Nowak4Baron6n = 10Baron took 6 of 10
S3Nowak4Baron6n = 10Baron took 6 of 10
S4Nowak3Baron7n = 10Baron took 7 of 10
S5Nowak3Baron3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNowakBaronN − BBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match44.645.8−1.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNowakBaronBasisWin rate · lifetime668 / 1760 vs 875 / 183038%47.8%668 / 1760 vs 875 / 1830Avg sets wonper match1.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.540.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BaronNowak 2.00/Baron 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.3%
Baron · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Baron won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 18 · 23:20J. Nowak541311118113M. Baron4815951182
LAug 5 · 18:25J. Nowak407111571M. Baron4511617113
LJun 16 · 22:10J. Nowak399111091M. Baron4111712113
LJun 16 · 01:55J. Nowak36691291M. Baron43111110113
WJun 15 · 19:55J. Nowak531110911123M. Baron43712113102
LJun 15 · 01:55J. Nowak43116115102M. Baron46511711123
LJun 14 · 19:55J. Nowak4379111152M. Baron49111188113
WJun 4 · 00:25J. Nowak49126911113M. Baron46101111772
LJun 2 · 03:05J. Nowak401288121M. Baron46101111143
LJun 1 · 21:05J. Nowak4911146992M. Baron516121111113
J. Nowak10
LOct 2 · 18:30O. Vincenec1.8311221414133J. Nowak1.839241612112WOct 2 · 17:45K. Kowalski3.001031191J. Nowak1.3612113113LOct 2 · 16:55J. Nowak2.3845110L. Oracz1.531111133WOct 2 · 15:50J. Nowak2.2510101111113K. Juszczyk1.5712127662LOct 1 · 17:05W. Ptak1.581111123J. Nowak2.2573100WOct 1 · 15:55J. Nowak1.851111113J. Kaczmarek1.858990LOct 1 · 14:45R. Niemiec1.35111113113J. Nowak2.95791551LOct 1 · 13:30R. Skotniczny1.25131111113J. Nowak3.501113351LOct 1 · 11:55W. Glanowski1.8519117123J. Nowak1.8517511101LOct 1 · 11:05R. Niemiec1.321111143J. Nowak3.0059120
M. Baron10
WOct 2 · 21:00K. Juszczyk1.5791131182M. Baron2.25118118113LOct 2 · 19:20L. Oracz1.671114133M. Baron2.10812110LOct 2 · 17:20O. Vincenec2.201141313113M. Baron1.61811111562WOct 2 · 16:35K. Juszczyk1.836960M. Baron1.831111113WOct 2 · 15:00K. Kowalski3.254111181M. Baron1.3311137113LOct 1 · 14:40O. Vincenec1.611111113M. Baron2.209990WOct 1 · 13:30M. Baron2.2011911113W. Urban1.61911661LOct 1 · 12:15P. Slosarczyk1.80612113113M. Baron1.91111091182WOct 1 · 11:00P. Gumulinski1.801016121192M. Baron1.911218108113WOct 1 · 09:25R. Idaczyk2.008680M. Baron1.731111113
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