TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Krzysztof Juszczyk vs Mariusz Baron 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911118311118811
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:57 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Juszczyk to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKrzysztof Juszczyk above · Mariusz Baron below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 91 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Krzysztof Juszczyk at 58.9%
91 points played in total.
H2H Krzysztof Juszczyk 12–18 Mariusz Baron Krzysztof Juszczyk has won 12 of their 30 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Baron beat Juszczyk 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:5758.9%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.8pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Juszczyk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-18 in 30
Baron
Correct
gap of 6 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Juszczyk 1329 vs Baron 1333
Baron
Correct
both rated, 4 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Juszczyk 40% vs Baron 60%
Baron
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Juszczyk 40% vs Baron 60%
Baron
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Juszczyk +2 · Baron +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Juszczyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baron form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJuszczyk 1.571 / Baron 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Juszczyk)-4.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13233078
Juszczyk1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 199 of 312
Up 2–0, closes it96% 116 of 121
Up 1–0, closes it80% 159 of 198
Baron2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog40% won 195 of 486
Down 0–1, comes back25% 67 of 266
Down 0–2, comes back9% 12 of 137
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJuszczyk6wins
AwayBaron4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderJuszczyk leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJuszczyk71.4%5 of 7
AwayBaron66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Juszczyk7Baron3n = 10Juszczyk took 7 of 10
S2Juszczyk7Baron3n = 10Juszczyk took 7 of 10
S3Juszczyk5Baron5n = 10split evenly
S4Juszczyk2Baron5n = 7Baron took 5 of 7
S5Juszczyk2Baron2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJuszczykBaronJ − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.840.2−0.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJuszczykBaronBasisWin rate · lifetime654 / 1213 vs 875 / 183053.9%47.8%654 / 1213 vs 875 / 1830Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.840.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
JuszczykJuszczyk 1.57/Baron 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Juszczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Baron won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 2 · 16:35K. Juszczyk216960M. Baron331111113
WSep 25 · 21:20K. Juszczyk58199117123M. Baron571711811102
WSep 25 · 18:30K. Juszczyk4311129113M. Baron389101181
WAug 23 · 08:20K. Juszczyk331111113M. Baron214890
WAug 5 · 19:35K. Juszczyk48111169113M. Baron4799111172
LJul 30 · 20:20K. Juszczyk3951112111M. Baron4711914133
WJul 2 · 20:20K. Juszczyk331111113M. Baron224990
LJun 16 · 17:20K. Juszczyk3311114252M. Baron49881111113
WJun 10 · 15:10K. Juszczyk4071111113M. Baron37119981
LMay 27 · 15:10K. Juszczyk50118117132M. Baron51511911153
K. Juszczyk10
WOct 2 · 19:40O. Vincenec2.1091312682K. Juszczyk1.6711111011113WOct 2 · 18:55K. Kowalski4.00551251K. Juszczyk1.22111110113LOct 2 · 18:10K. Juszczyk1.8071111882L. Oracz1.91118411113LOct 2 · 16:35K. Juszczyk1.836960M. Baron1.831111113LOct 2 · 15:50J. Nowak2.2510101111113K. Juszczyk1.5712127662WOct 1 · 20:20W. Pytlas1.8377110K. Juszczyk1.831111133LOct 1 · 19:35M. Tkocz1.7011118113K. Juszczyk2.05941151LOct 1 · 17:35M. Koczyba1.6011411113K. Juszczyk2.10911771WOct 1 · 16:50G. Jurowicz1.958511111K. Juszczyk1.7511118133LOct 1 · 15:10K. Adamus1.711111133K. Juszczyk2.0096110
M. Baron10
WOct 2 · 20:05J. Nowak2.00910121192M. Baron1.731112108113LOct 2 · 19:20L. Oracz1.671114133M. Baron2.10812110LOct 2 · 17:20O. Vincenec2.201141313113M. Baron1.61811111562WOct 2 · 16:35K. Juszczyk1.836960M. Baron1.831111113WOct 2 · 15:00K. Kowalski3.254111181M. Baron1.3311137113LOct 1 · 14:40O. Vincenec1.611111113M. Baron2.209990WOct 1 · 13:30M. Baron2.2011911113W. Urban1.61911661LOct 1 · 12:15P. Slosarczyk1.80612113113M. Baron1.91111091182WOct 1 · 11:00P. Gumulinski1.801016121192M. Baron1.911218108113WOct 1 · 09:25R. Idaczyk2.008680M. Baron1.731111113
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