TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Kamil Kowalski vs Krzysztof Juszczyk 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
5115111210511––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:50 and never touched: 79.4% is still 79.4%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Juszczyk to win
79.4%
79.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingKamil Kowalski above · Krzysztof Juszczyk below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 70 set 4, 5-11 · our read held Krzysztof Juszczyk at 79.4%
70 points played in total.
H2H Kamil Kowalski 1–1 Krzysztof Juszczyk Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:5079.4%Our read81.8%to break even at 1.222
short by 2.4pp81.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.222 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Juszczyk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kowalski 1071 vs Juszczyk 1312
Juszczyk
Correct
both rated, 241 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kowalski 20% vs Juszczyk 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kowalski 10% vs Juszczyk 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kowalski -3 · Juszczyk -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% · Strong (leans Juszczyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Juszczyk form (20%) is below what odds imply (82%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKowalski 4.00 / Juszczyk 1.222
Signal prob.21% / 79%
Edge (Juszczyk)-2.4pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13232630
Kowalski4.00
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog18% won 29 of 162
Down 0–1, comes back6% 6 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 69
Juszczyk1.22
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 199 of 312
Up 2–0, closes it96% 116 of 121
Up 1–0, closes it80% 159 of 198
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKowalski1wins
AwayJuszczyk1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricKowalskiJuszczykK − JBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match32.034.5−2.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKowalskiJuszczykBasisWin rate · lifetime29 / 173 vs 654 / 121316.8%53.9%29 / 173 vs 654 / 1213Avg sets wonper match1.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match32.936.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
JuszczykKowalski 4.00/Juszczyk 1.22
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.4%
Juszczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Juszczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 1 · 02:35K. Kowalski43111110113K. Juszczyk35691281
LJul 31 · 18:10K. Kowalski2156100K. Juszczyk341111123
K. Kowalski10
LOct 2 · 17:45K. Kowalski3.001031191J. Nowak1.3612113113LOct 2 · 16:15K. Kowalski3.408870O. Vincenec1.301111113LOct 2 · 15:00K. Kowalski3.254111181M. Baron1.3311137113WSep 30 · 14:20K. Kowalski5.5011115113P. Brozek1.13471141LSep 30 · 12:40K. Adamus1.221411113K. Kowalski4.0012690LSep 30 · 11:50P. Przewlocki1.1716136113K. Kowalski4.5014111191LSep 30 · 11:00K. Kowalski6.501061181O. Jadach1.1012116113LSep 30 · 09:50K. Kowalski3.007450I. Szymanski1.361111113LSep 30 · 08:10K. Kowalski3.405101112142P. Brozek1.301112610163LSep 30 · 06:30K. Adamus1.221110811113K. Kowalski4.0081211522
K. Juszczyk10
LOct 2 · 18:10K. Juszczyk1.8071111882L. Oracz1.91118411113LOct 2 · 16:35K. Juszczyk1.836960M. Baron1.831111113LOct 2 · 15:50J. Nowak2.2510101111113K. Juszczyk1.5712127662WOct 1 · 20:20W. Pytlas1.8377110K. Juszczyk1.831111133LOct 1 · 19:35M. Tkocz1.7011118113K. Juszczyk2.05941151LOct 1 · 17:35M. Koczyba1.6011411113K. Juszczyk2.10911771WOct 1 · 16:50G. Jurowicz1.958511111K. Juszczyk1.7511118133LOct 1 · 15:10K. Adamus1.711111133K. Juszczyk2.0096110LSep 30 · 20:20A. Ruszkiewicz2.5011118113K. Juszczyk1.47871181LSep 30 · 19:35W. Pytlas1.86117116113K. Juszczyk1.8081151132
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