TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Piotr Przewlocki vs Kamil Kowalski 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
16141311611119––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:48 and never touched: 83.4% is still 83.4%
Graded at full timePiotr Przewlocki to win
83.4%
83.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPiotr Przewlocki above · Kamil Kowalski below
Set 1 · 16-14
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 91 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Piotr Przewlocki at 83.4%
91 points played in total.
H2H Piotr Przewlocki 6–3 Kamil Kowalski Kamil Kowalski has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:4883.4%Our read85.8%to break even at 1.166
short by 2.4pp85.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.166 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Przewlocki
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-3 in 9
Przewlocki
Correct
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Przewlocki 1362 vs Kowalski 1075
Przewlocki
Correct
both rated, 287 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Przewlocki 40% vs Kowalski 0%
Przewlocki
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Przewlocki 60% vs Kowalski 20%
Przewlocki
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Przewlocki -2 · Kowalski -6
Kowalski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 83% · Strong (leans Przewlocki) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kowalski form (0%) is below what odds imply (22%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPrzewlocki 1.166 / Kowalski 4.50
Signal prob.83% / 17%
Edge (Przewlocki)-2.4pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13216195
Przewlocki1.17
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite59% won 126 of 214
Up 2–0, closes it96% 50 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it76% 84 of 110
Kowalski4.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog18% won 28 of 153
Down 0–1, comes back6% 6 of 95
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomePrzewlocki6wins
AwayKowalski3wins
2 of 9 to a deciderPrzewlocki leads 6–3, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePrzewlocki100%4 of 4
AwayKowalski60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Przewlocki4Kowalski5n = 9Kowalski took 5 of 9
S2Przewlocki6Kowalski3n = 9Przewlocki took 6 of 9
S3Przewlocki6Kowalski3n = 9Przewlocki took 6 of 9
S4Przewlocki4Kowalski1n = 5Przewlocki took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home333%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricPrzewlockiKowalskiP − KBasisWins63+3in 9 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match34.733.6+1.1per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPrzewlockiKowalskiBasisWin rate · lifetime525 / 1102 vs 28 / 16747.6%16.8%525 / 1102 vs 28 / 167Avg sets wonper match2.01.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.732.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PrzewlockiPrzewlocki 1.17/Kowalski 4.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
83.4%
Przewlocki · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Przewlocki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 30 · 03:50P. Przewlocki30751171K. Kowalski3911116113
WSep 29 · 11:50P. Przewlocki4011711113K. Kowalski33811771
LSep 29 · 03:50P. Przewlocki156450K. Kowalski331111113
WAug 12 · 10:35P. Przewlocki331111113K. Kowalski216870
WAug 12 · 03:00P. Przewlocki4181111113K. Kowalski27116731
WAug 5 · 10:35P. Przewlocki361114113K. Kowalski2991280
LAug 5 · 03:00P. Przewlocki3841171152K. Kowalski45115117113
WAug 4 · 11:25P. Przewlocki44712311113K. Kowalski49111011892
WAug 4 · 05:15P. Przewlocki351111133K. Kowalski2669110
P. Przewlocki10
LSep 30 · 10:10P. Przewlocki1.83919111172K. Adamus1.83112189113LSep 30 · 09:00P. Przewlocki2.63791191P. Brozek1.4411114113WSep 30 · 07:45K. Adamus1.837880P. Przewlocki1.831111113WSep 30 · 06:55I. Szymanski3.40121111692P. Przewlocki1.301013411113LSep 30 · 06:05P. Przewlocki2.20101490O. Jadach1.611216113WSep 30 · 04:30P. Przewlocki2.631111113P. Brozek1.448980LSep 30 · 03:50K. Kowalski5.0011116113P. Przewlocki1.14751171WSep 29 · 14:40P. Przewlocki1.8351111113K. Schaniel1.83115581WSep 29 · 13:05P. Przewlocki1.33101111123I. Szymanski3.251288101WSep 29 · 11:50P. Przewlocki1.1711711113K. Kowalski4.50811771
K. Kowalski10
LSep 30 · 12:40K. Adamus1.221411113K. Kowalski4.0012690LSep 30 · 11:00K. Kowalski6.501061181O. Jadach1.1012116113LSep 30 · 09:50K. Kowalski3.007450I. Szymanski1.361111113LSep 30 · 08:10K. Kowalski3.405101112142P. Brozek1.301112610163LSep 30 · 06:30K. Adamus1.221110811113K. Kowalski4.0081211522LSep 30 · 05:40I. Szymanski1.3611811113K. Kowalski3.00611481LSep 30 · 04:55K. Kowalski3.50138281O. Jadach1.28111111113WSep 30 · 03:50K. Kowalski5.0011116113P. Przewlocki1.14751171WSep 29 · 14:20K. Kowalski3.401111113R. Idaczyk1.308880LSep 29 · 11:50P. Przewlocki1.1711711113K. Kowalski4.50811771
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