TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Kamil Kowalski vs Rafal Idaczyk 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118118118––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:10 and never touched: 75.1% is still 75.1%
Graded at full timeRafal Idaczyk to win
75.1%
75.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKamil Kowalski above · Rafal Idaczyk below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 57 set 3, 11-8 · our read held Rafal Idaczyk at 75.1%
57 points played in total.
H2H Kamil Kowalski 0–1 Rafal Idaczyk Kamil Kowalski has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Idaczyk beat Kowalski 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:10What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Idaczyk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kowalski 1061 vs Idaczyk 1383
Idaczyk
Wrong
both rated, 323 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kowalski 0% vs Idaczyk 40%
Idaczyk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kowalski 20% vs Idaczyk 60%
Idaczyk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kowalski -6 · Idaczyk -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% · Strong (leans Idaczyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Idaczyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKowalski 3.40 / Idaczyk 1.30
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Idaczyk)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13214740
Kowalski3.40
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog18% won 25 of 143
Down 0–1, comes back6% 5 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 61
Idaczyk1.30
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 116 of 185
Up 2–0, closes it96% 69 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it81% 94 of 116
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKowalski0wins
AwayIdaczyk1wins
Idaczyk leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricKowalskiIdaczykK − IBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match36.046.0−10.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKowalskiIdaczykBasisWin rate · lifetime26 / 159 vs 484 / 96616.4%50.1%26 / 159 vs 484 / 966Avg sets wonper match1.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match32.835.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
IdaczykKowalski 3.40/Idaczyk 1.30
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
75.1%
Idaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kowalski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 29 · 08:10K. Kowalski361384111R. Idaczyk46111111133
K. Kowalski10
LSep 29 · 12:40R. Gajda1.5311116113K. Kowalski2.38681191LSep 29 · 11:50P. Przewlocki1.1711711113K. Kowalski4.50811771LSep 29 · 11:00K. Kowalski4.00119612102K. Schaniel1.227111110123LSep 29 · 09:50K. Kowalski2.759870I. Szymanski1.401111113LSep 29 · 08:10K. Kowalski3.751384111R. Idaczyk1.25111111133LSep 29 · 06:30R. Gajda1.4012911113K. Kowalski2.751011491WSep 29 · 05:40I. Szymanski1.331187101K. Kowalski3.2591111123LSep 29 · 04:55K. Kowalski3.25271151K. Schaniel1.3311114113WSep 29 · 03:50K. Kowalski5.001111113P. Przewlocki1.146450LSep 22 · 20:00M. Tkocz1.101111113K. Kowalski4.502450
R. Idaczyk10
LSep 29 · 13:30K. Schaniel1.73119119113R. Idaczyk2.0061191172LSep 29 · 11:25R. Gajda1.57111011143R. Idaczyk2.259128121LSep 29 · 10:35I. Szymanski4.331111113R. Idaczyk1.209580WSep 29 · 09:00P. Przewlocki2.10919531R. Idaczyk1.67111711113WSep 29 · 08:10K. Kowalski3.751384111R. Idaczyk1.25111111133WSep 29 · 07:20K. Schaniel1.73911101172R. Idaczyk2.00119126113WSep 29 · 05:15R. Gajda1.618880R. Idaczyk2.201111113LSep 29 · 04:30P. Przewlocki2.001111113R. Idaczyk1.737880WSep 29 · 03:00I. Szymanski4.00781151R. Idaczyk1.2211118113WSep 27 · 08:00M. Adamus2.005890R. Idaczyk1.721111113
Upcoming Matches
K. Kowalski
Sep 30 · 03:50K. Kowalski5.00P. Przewlocki1.14—Sep 30 · 04:55K. Kowalski3.50O. Jadach1.28—Sep 30 · 05:40K. Kowalski3.25I. Szymanski1.33—Sep 30 · 06:30K. Kowalski3.40K. Adamus1.30—Sep 30 · 08:10K. Kowalski3.40P. Brozek1.30—Sep 30 · 09:50K. Kowalski3.25I. Szymanski1.33—Sep 30 · 11:50K. Kowalski4.50P. Przewlocki1.17—
R. Idaczyk
Nothing scheduled
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