TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Krzysztof Juszczyk vs Lukasz Oracz 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711118114811811
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:52 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Juszczyk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKrzysztof Juszczyk above · Lukasz Oracz below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 6-6
Point 83 set 5, 6-6 · our read held Krzysztof Juszczyk at 54.0%
83 points drawn · the score is 7 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Krzysztof Juszczyk 4–5 Lukasz Oracz Krzysztof Juszczyk has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:5254.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Juszczyk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Juszczyk 1323 vs Oracz 1339
Oracz
Correct
both rated, 16 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Juszczyk 20% vs Oracz 40%
Oracz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Juszczyk 30% vs Oracz 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Juszczyk -2 · Oracz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Juszczyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oracz form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJuszczyk 1.80 / Oracz 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Juszczyk)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13232330
Juszczyk1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 199 of 312
Up 2–0, closes it96% 116 of 121
Up 1–0, closes it80% 159 of 198
Oracz1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 126 of 298
Down 0–1, comes back22% 36 of 167
Down 0–2, comes back9% 8 of 92
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeJuszczyk4wins
AwayOracz5wins
Oracz leads 5–4.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJuszczyk80%4 of 5
AwayOracz100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Juszczyk5Oracz4n = 9Juszczyk took 5 of 9
S2Juszczyk4Oracz5n = 9Oracz took 5 of 9
S3Juszczyk4Oracz5n = 9Oracz took 5 of 9
S4Juszczyk2Oracz3n = 5Oracz took 3 of 5
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away333%
0–3Straight, away222%
These 9 meetings
MetricJuszczykOraczJ − OBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match33.134.6−1.5per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJuszczykOraczBasisWin rate · lifetime655 / 1214 vs 856 / 156054%54.9%655 / 1214 vs 856 / 1560Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
JuszczykJuszczyk 1.80/Oracz 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Juszczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Oracz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 25 · 23:20K. Juszczyk238870L. Oracz331111113
LSep 25 · 17:20K. Juszczyk30118561L. Oracz3851111113
WAug 7 · 22:10K. Juszczyk341211113L. Oracz2610880
LJun 19 · 18:30K. Juszczyk341011761L. Oracz4012611113
LMay 21 · 18:25K. Juszczyk209740L. Oracz331111113
WDec 13 · 03:45K. Juszczyk331111113L. Oracz228770
WDec 13 · 00:05K. Juszczyk4713149113L. Oracz4011121161
WMay 18 · 00:45K. Juszczyk4311713123L. Oracz3751111101
LMay 17 · 22:20K. Juszczyk347611101L. Oracz4211118123
K. Juszczyk10
WOct 2 · 18:55K. Kowalski4.00551251K. Juszczyk1.22111110113LOct 2 · 16:35K. Juszczyk1.836960M. Baron1.831111113LOct 2 · 15:50J. Nowak2.2510101111113K. Juszczyk1.5712127662WOct 1 · 20:20W. Pytlas1.8377110K. Juszczyk1.831111133LOct 1 · 19:35M. Tkocz1.7011118113K. Juszczyk2.05941151LOct 1 · 17:35M. Koczyba1.6011411113K. Juszczyk2.10911771WOct 1 · 16:50G. Jurowicz1.958511111K. Juszczyk1.7511118133LOct 1 · 15:10K. Adamus1.711111133K. Juszczyk2.0096110LSep 30 · 20:20A. Ruszkiewicz2.5011118113K. Juszczyk1.47871181LSep 30 · 19:35W. Pytlas1.86117116113K. Juszczyk1.8081151132
L. Oracz10
WOct 2 · 19:20L. Oracz1.671114133M. Baron2.10812110WOct 2 · 16:55J. Nowak2.3845110L. Oracz1.531111133LOct 2 · 15:25O. Vincenec1.8091111123L. Oracz1.911199101WOct 1 · 08:00L. Oracz1.80111311113P. Kurek1.90515381LOct 1 · 06:45L. Oracz1.88311591M. Jozefiak1.8211411113LOct 1 · 05:35L. Oracz2.2551090M. Lebek1.551112113LOct 1 · 04:25O. Sokolowski1.951111123L. Oracz1.7567100LOct 1 · 03:35L. Oracz1.52111011692A. Burkacki2.37512811113WOct 1 · 02:00L. Oracz1.766111011113O. Sokolowski1.9011712992WOct 1 · 00:45L. Oracz2.05119115113M. Jozefiak1.7071171182
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