TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Lukasz Oracz vs Oliwier Sokolowski 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
6111171012119119
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:53 and never touched: 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
97 points played in total.
Set by set
6111171012119119
H2H Lukasz Oracz 9–5 Oliwier Sokolowski Oliwier Sokolowski has won 5 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:5354.3%Our read56.8%to break even at 1.76
short by 2.5pp56.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.76 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.76 (52%)
Oracz
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-5 in 14
Oracz
Correct
gap of 4 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oracz 1369 vs Sokolowski 1307
Oracz
Correct
both rated, 61 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oracz 60% vs Sokolowski 40%
Oracz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oracz 60% vs Sokolowski 40%
Oracz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Oracz +1 · Sokolowski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Oracz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sokolowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOracz 1.76 / Sokolowski 1.90
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Oracz)-2.5pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13217289
Oracz1.76
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 360 of 573
Up 2–0, closes it97% 202 of 209
Up 1–0, closes it81% 281 of 346
Sokolowski1.90
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 125 of 336
Down 0–1, comes back20% 41 of 205
Down 0–2, comes back3% 4 of 123
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOracz6wins
AwaySokolowski4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderOracz leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOracz71.4%5 of 7
AwaySokolowski66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oracz7Sokolowski3n = 10Oracz took 7 of 10
S2Oracz5Sokolowski5n = 10split evenly
S3Oracz4Sokolowski6n = 10Sokolowski took 6 of 10
S4Oracz4Sokolowski3n = 7Oracz took 4 of 7
S5Oracz2Sokolowski2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricOraczSokolowskiO − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.138.0+1.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOraczSokolowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime853 / 1552 vs 267 / 61655%43.3%853 / 1552 vs 267 / 616Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.036.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OraczOracz 1.76/Sokolowski 1.90
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.3%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Oracz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 02:10L. Oracz44115115123O. Sokolowski46511911102
WSep 29 · 17:20L. Oracz4311128123O. Sokolowski4091011101
LSep 29 · 01:30L. Oracz2312560O. Sokolowski361411113
LSep 28 · 19:55L. Oracz331110120O. Sokolowski391312143
LSep 25 · 22:35L. Oracz4611691192O. Sokolowski45611116113
WSep 25 · 15:00L. Oracz4112117113O. Sokolowski371091171
LSep 11 · 16:35L. Oracz4111311792O. Sokolowski48911611113
WSep 1 · 13:30L. Oracz341112113O. Sokolowski1811070
WSep 1 · 07:30L. Oracz44411117113O. Sokolowski4111581162
WJul 3 · 14:20L. Oracz4211119113O. Sokolowski30651181
L. Oracz10
WOct 1 · 00:45L. Oracz2.05119115113M. Jozefiak1.7071171182LSep 30 · 23:35L. Oracz2.60811771M. Lebek1.4211611113LSep 30 · 22:25P. Kurek1.8011125113L. Oracz1.906101181WSep 30 · 21:35L. Oracz1.391111113A. Burkacki2.805420WSep 30 · 02:10O. Sokolowski2.10511911102L. Oracz1.67115115123LSep 30 · 01:25P. Gumulinski1.831111113L. Oracz1.835670WSep 29 · 23:20M. Koczyba1.8071080L. Oracz1.911112113WSep 29 · 22:35P. Slosarczyk3.50861181L. Oracz1.2811114113LSep 29 · 21:00J. Nowak2.5010111110113L. Oracz1.5012761282WSep 29 · 20:05M. Koczyba1.738111041L. Oracz2.0011912113
O. Sokolowski10
LOct 1 · 03:10O. Sokolowski1.953580M. Lebek1.751111113LOct 1 · 01:10P. Kurek1.54861111113O. Sokolowski2.3511117532WOct 1 · 00:25O. Sokolowski1.65111011153A. Burkacki2.055129131WSep 30 · 22:50O. Sokolowski2.1511119133M. Lebek1.606911111LSep 30 · 22:00M. Jozefiak—116117113O. Sokolowski—31191162LSep 30 · 02:10O. Sokolowski2.10511911102L. Oracz1.67115115123WSep 30 · 00:35M. Koczyba1.61551191O. Sokolowski2.2011117113LSep 29 · 23:45J. Nowak1.911111113O. Sokolowski1.808790LSep 29 · 22:55O. Sokolowski2.631061141P. Gumulinski1.4412116113LSep 29 · 21:45O. Sokolowski1.804670P. Slosarczyk1.911111113
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