TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Oliwier Sokolowski vs Marian Lebek 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161199111311––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:47 and never touched: 64.7% is still 64.7%
Graded at full timeMarian Lebek to win
64.7%
64.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
81 points played in total.
Set by set
1161199111311––
H2H Oliwier Sokolowski 9–9 Marian Lebek Dead even across their 18 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:4764.7%Our read62.5%to break even at 1.60
clears by 2.2pp62.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.60 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (57%)
Lebek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-9 in 18
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sokolowski 1288 vs Lebek 1452
Lebek
Wrong
both rated, 164 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sokolowski 20% vs Lebek 60%
Lebek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sokolowski 30% vs Lebek 70%
Lebek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sokolowski -2 · Lebek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Lebek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sokolowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (47%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSokolowski 2.15 / Lebek 1.60
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Lebek)+2.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13217376
Sokolowski2.15
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 125 of 336
Down 0–1, comes back20% 41 of 205
Down 0–2, comes back3% 4 of 123
Lebek1.60
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 238 of 380
Up 2–0, closes it96% 160 of 166
Up 1–0, closes it82% 211 of 257
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSokolowski6wins
AwayLebek4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSokolowski leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSokolowski100%3 of 3
AwayLebek57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sokolowski3Lebek7n = 10Lebek took 7 of 10
S2Sokolowski5Lebek5n = 10split evenly
S3Sokolowski8Lebek2n = 10Sokolowski took 8 of 10
S4Sokolowski5Lebek3n = 8Sokolowski took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSokolowskiLebekS − LBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.937.3+0.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSokolowskiLebekBasisWin rate · lifetime265 / 613 vs 861 / 147743.2%58.3%265 / 613 vs 861 / 1477Avg sets wonper match1.82.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LebekSokolowski 2.15/Lebek 1.60
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.7%
Lebek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sokolowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 24 · 05:35O. Sokolowski4681115123M. Lebek4211813101
LSep 23 · 23:35O. Sokolowski48105111392M. Lebek521211711113
LSep 10 · 03:10O. Sokolowski213990M. Lebek331111113
WSep 9 · 22:50O. Sokolowski331111113M. Lebek239590
WSep 9 · 08:45O. Sokolowski4071111113M. Lebek33117691
LSep 9 · 00:25O. Sokolowski29611661M. Lebek3511211113
WSep 3 · 04:00O. Sokolowski4111811113M. Lebek33711781
LSep 3 · 00:00O. Sokolowski32661371M. Lebek44111111113
WAug 19 · 08:45O. Sokolowski518111110113M. Lebek4311481282
WAug 13 · 07:35O. Sokolowski3811313113M. Lebek355111181
O. Sokolowski10
LSep 30 · 22:00M. Jozefiak—116117113O. Sokolowski—31191162LSep 30 · 02:10O. Sokolowski2.10511911102L. Oracz1.67115115123WSep 30 · 00:35M. Koczyba1.61551191O. Sokolowski2.2011117113LSep 29 · 23:45J. Nowak1.911111113O. Sokolowski1.808790LSep 29 · 22:55O. Sokolowski2.631061141P. Gumulinski1.4412116113LSep 29 · 21:45O. Sokolowski1.804670P. Slosarczyk1.911111113WSep 29 · 19:40O. Sokolowski1.731114114113J. Nowak2.00712131192LSep 29 · 18:30O. Sokolowski2.25101260M. Koczyba1.571214113LSep 29 · 17:20O. Sokolowski2.2591011101L. Oracz1.5711128123WSep 29 · 16:15P. Slosarczyk2.254811111O. Sokolowski1.5711116133
M. Lebek10
WSep 30 · 23:35L. Oracz2.60811771M. Lebek1.4211611113LSep 30 · 21:10P. Kurek2.251111113M. Lebek1.558580WSep 30 · 08:00P. Adamus2.10571161M. Lebek1.6511118113WSep 30 · 07:10M. Cesarz5.4010151151M. Lebek1.1012177113WSep 30 · 06:25M. Lebek2.20118118113M. Guzik1.5781181132LSep 30 · 04:50M. Lebek1.3211750J. Kaczmarek3.051311113LSep 30 · 04:00W. Urban1.99118117113M. Lebek1.7471171152WSep 30 · 02:20M. Lebek1.901111113M. Tkocz1.809890WSep 30 · 00:45M. Adamus2.45711101172M. Lebek1.47118128113WSep 30 · 00:00P. Adamus1.52911111162M. Lebek2.30111359113
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